Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Gainwell
RB · TB vs ATL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Hip
Projected points5.8pts
if he plays · 80% to play
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or Kenny Gainwell: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start Kenny Gainwell.
- Ahead by
- +9.8pts
- over Gainwell if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start Kenny Gainwell.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Kenny Gainwell. Kenny Gainwell was limited in practice (hip): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Weather in Kenny Gainwell's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
GainwellIf he sitsRB · TB vs ATLUsually 5.6+0.2pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.26 touchdowns, above his usual 0.14.
- ATLvs RBsEdgeATL is the 9th softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −0.7ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 14.5 rushing yards, below his usual 21.3.
- 13%touchesHe handles only 13% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 3.5floorA quiet week could drop to about 3.5 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Gainwell: 5.8
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateGainwell: 1.6
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateGainwell: 0.26
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3Gainwell: 23.0 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2 (best)Gainwell: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8 (best)Gainwell: 0.4
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5 (best)Gainwell: 0.4
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Gainwell: 36%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Gainwell: 6.2
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Gainwell: 13%
Target shareJones: 11% (best)Gainwell: 8%
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Gainwell: 6.4
Targets / gameJones: 3.2 (best)Gainwell: 2.4
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Gainwell: 0.0
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7 (best)Gainwell: 1.7
Goal line carry shareJones: 50% (best)Gainwell: 0%
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3 (best)Gainwell: 0.9
Rush success rateJones: 35%Gainwell: 39% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0%Gainwell: 3.0% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Gainwell: Earned by usage 6.2Scored 5.6
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Gainwell: 21.3
Points from rushingJones: 75%Gainwell: 38%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowGainwell: Above
WOPRJones: 0.17 (best)Gainwell: 0.09
RZ target shareJones: 14% (best)Gainwell: 11%
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Gainwell: 20% (best)
Catch rateJones: 68%Gainwell: 71% (best)
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / game (best)Gainwell: 2.1 pts / game
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Gainwell: 1.7 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Gainwell: 3.5
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Gainwell: 9.0
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Gainwell: 15%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Gainwell: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22% (best)Gainwell: 67%
SteadinessJones: Very steady (best)±4.8 ptsGainwell: Steady±3.2 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionJones: C2026, 6 gmGainwell: B (best)2026, 7 gm
Game scriptJones: Expected to trailGainwell: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0 (best)Gainwell: 1.3
Defense funnelJones: NeutralGainwell: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average) (best)Gainwell: 4th (tough)
Backfield roleJones: LeadGainwell: Backup
WeatherJones: IndoorsGainwell: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain
Roof / surfaceJones: DometurfGainwell: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalGainwell: Normal
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Gainwell: 21st (average)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18% (best)16th (average)Gainwell: 20%10th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowed12th (average)Jones: 4.1Gainwell: 4.1
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Gainwell: 29th (soft)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameJones: 0.01st (tough)Gainwell: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74% (best)12th (average)Gainwell: 70%4th (tough)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Gainwell: Mayfield (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0 (best)Gainwell: 6.0
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8 (best)Gainwell: 6.3
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady) (best)Gainwell: +0.4 (Steady)
Yards per carryJones: 4.2Gainwell: 4.5 (best)
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Gainwell: 4.7
Yards per route runJones: 0.85Gainwell: 0.94 (best)
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Gainwell: −2.3
Touch share trendJones: Left Week 7 hurtGainwell: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43%Gainwell: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Gainwell: RB41
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateGainwell: 14.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.