Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Dowdle
RB · PIT vs CLE
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points8.3pts
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or Rico Dowdle: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start Rico Dowdle.
- Ahead by
- +7.3pts
- over Dowdle if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start Rico Dowdle.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Rico Dowdle. Rico Dowdle has played 2 games since missing time. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
DowdleIf he sitsRB · PIT vs CLEProjected8.3pts
Helps him
- −3.5spreadEdgeHis team is expected to lead, which tends to mean more carries late.
Hurts him
- 23%touchesHe handles only 23% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- CLEvs RBsEdgeCLE is the 6th toughest defense for running backs.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Dowdle: 8.3
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateDowdle: 1.7
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateDowdle: 0.29
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3Dowdle: 21.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2 (best)Dowdle: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8 (best)Dowdle: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5 (best)Dowdle: 0.3
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Dowdle: 39%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Dowdle: 10.1
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Dowdle: 23%
Target shareJones: 11%Dowdle: 12% (best)
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Dowdle: 11.0
Targets / gameJones: 3.2Dowdle: 4.3 (best)
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Dowdle: 0.0
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7Dowdle: 3.5 (best)
Goal line carry shareJones: 50% (best)Dowdle: 0%
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3 (best)Dowdle: 1.5
Rush success rateJones: 35% (best)Dowdle: 26%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0% (best)Dowdle: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Dowdle: Earned by usage 10.1Scored 8.3
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Dowdle: 29.5
Points from rushingJones: 75%Dowdle: 36%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowDowdle: 1 RZ target
WOPRJones: 0.17Dowdle: 0.18 (best)
RZ target shareJones: 14% (best)Dowdle: 7%
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Dowdle: 11% (best)
Catch rateJones: 68%Dowdle: 76% (best)
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / game (best)Dowdle: 3.0 pts / game
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Dowdle: 3.0 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Dowdle: 5.4
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Dowdle: 12.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Dowdle: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Dowdle: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22% (best)Dowdle: 75%
SteadinessJones: Very steady (best)±4.8 ptsDowdle: Steady±4.5 pts · 4 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionJones: C (best)2026, 6 gmDowdle: D+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptJones: Expected to trailDowdle: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0 (best)Dowdle: 1.3
Defense funnelJones: NeutralDowdle: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average)Dowdle: 20th (average) (best)
Backfield roleJones: LeadDowdle: Backup
Roof / surfaceJones: DometurfDowdle: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalDowdle: Normal
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Dowdle: 22nd (slow)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18% (best)16th (average)Dowdle: 23%2nd (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedJones: 4.112th (average)Dowdle: 4.6 (best)28th (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Dowdle: 8th (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Jones: 0.0Dowdle: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74%12th (average)Dowdle: 77% (best)14th (average)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Dowdle: Rodgers (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0 (best)Dowdle: 9.6
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8 (best)Dowdle: 8.3
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady)Dowdle: +1.4 (best)
Yards per carryJones: 4.2 (best)Dowdle: 3.8
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Dowdle: 7.8
Yards per route runJones: 0.85Dowdle: 1.64 (best)
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Dowdle: −0.6
Games since injuryJones: None recentlyDowdle: 2
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43%Dowdle: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Dowdle: RB29
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateDowdle: 27.5
Deciding on someone else?
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