St. Brown
WR · DET vs MIN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points17.7pts
Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Start
Bench
Amon-Ra St. Brown or DeVonta Smith: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Amon-Ra St. Brown over DeVonta Smith.
- Ahead by
- +12.0pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- High
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 98%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Amon-Ra St. Brown or a bigger role for DeVonta Smith.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 1:00 PM ET
Highlights
St. BrownStartWR · DET vs MINUsually 21.4−3.7pts this week
Helps him
- 2.7red zoneHe gets 2.7 red zone targets a game, a real path to touchdowns.
- 11.8floorA quiet week still projects to about 11.8 points.
- 46%big weeks46% of his games have been big weeks.
Hurts him
- −1.6ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.56 touchdowns, below his usual 0.83.
- −1.2ptscatchesHis lines put him at 6.5 catches, below his usual 7.7.
- −1.0ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 77.5 receiving yards, below his usual 87.5.
- MINvs WRsEdgeMIN is the toughest defense for receivers.
SmithFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- WASvs WRsEdgeWAS is the 11th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionSt. Brown: 17.7 (best)Smith: 5.7
TD pointsof the projectionSt. Brown: 3.4Smith: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekSt. Brown: 0.56Smith: Our estimate
Projected team pointsSt. Brown: 24.8 (best)Smith: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameSt. Brown: 2.7 (best)Smith: 0.8
Role
Snap shareSt. Brown: 87%Smith: 87%
Usage worthptsSt. Brown: 20.7 (best)Smith: 17.4
Target shareSt. Brown: 32%Smith: 32%
Targets / gameSt. Brown: 11.3 (best)Smith: 10.3
Air yards shareSt. Brown: 35%Smith: 48% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsSt. Brown: AboveSmith: Above
WOPRSt. Brown: 0.73Smith: 0.81 (best)
RZ target shareSt. Brown: 35% (best)Smith: 27%
Catch rateSt. Brown: 68% (best)Smith: 63%
SeparationSt. Brown: 2.7 yds (best)Smith: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedSt. Brown: −1.1Smith: +0.3 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredSt. Brown: Earned by usage 20.7Scored 21.4Smith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3
Vacated targets this weekSt. Brown: 0.0Smith: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareSt. Brown: 27%Smith: 33% (best)
Range
FloorSt. Brown: 11.8 (best)Smith: 0.0
CeilingSt. Brown: 27.5 (best)Smith: 9.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerSt. Brown: 23%Smith: 17%
Big weeks (20+ pts)St. Brown: 46% (best)Smith: 29%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterSt. Brown: 4% (best)Smith: 8%
SteadinessSt. Brown: Very steady (best)±9.5 ptsSmith: Steady±8.4 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmSt. Brown: FSmith: B (best)
Game scriptSt. Brown: Expected to lead (best)Smith: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterSt. Brown: 1.8Smith: 1.3 (best)
Defense funnelSt. Brown: NeutralSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedSt. Brown: 2nd (tough)Smith: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBSt. Brown: Goff (Active)Smith: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outSt. Brown: None listedSmith: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceSt. Brown: DometurfSmith: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleSt. Brown: NormalSmith: Normal
Opp paceSt. Brown: 26th (slow)Smith: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameSt. Brown: 2.37th (tough)Smith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedSt. Brown: 58%8th (tough)Smith: 67% (best)28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgSt. Brown: 17.5Smith: 20.2 (best)
Last 5 avgSt. Brown: 19.9 (best)Smith: 17.3
vs seasonSt. Brown: −3.9 (Cooling)Smith: +3.0 (best)
Yards per route runSt. Brown: 2.46Smith: 2.52 (best)
Receiving aDOTSt. Brown: 8.9Smith: 12.2
Target share trendSt. Brown: SteadySmith: Steady
Games since injurySt. Brown: None recentlySmith: 0
Crowd
Started in leaguesSt. Brown: 99% (best)Smith: 49%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterSt. Brown: WR6 (best)Smith: WR63
Yards linereceivingSt. Brown: 77.5Smith: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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