Coleman
WR · BUF vs BAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points6.7pts
Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Toss-up
Bench
DeVonta Smith or Keon Coleman: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Keon Coleman gets the nod over DeVonta Smith.
- Ahead by
- +1.0pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- Lower
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 46%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Keon Coleman or a bigger role for DeVonta Smith.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
ColemanToss-upWR · BUF vs BALUsually 10.9−4.2pts this week
Helps him
- 28.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.8 points, a high scoring spot.
- +4.8last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.8 points above his season average.
- 3games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.8ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 29.5 receiving yards, below his usual 47.2.
- −1.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.21 touchdowns, below his usual 0.50.
- −0.7ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, below his usual 3.2.
- 15%targetsHe draws only 15% of his team’s targets.
SmithFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 32%targetsHe draws 32% of his team’s targets.
- 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionColeman: 6.7 (best)Smith: 5.7
TD pointsof the projectionColeman: 1.3Smith: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekColeman: 0.21Smith: Our estimate
Projected team pointsColeman: 28.8 (best)Smith: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameColeman: 0.8Smith: 0.8
Role
Snap shareColeman: 68%Smith: 87% (best)
Usage worthptsColeman: 7.4Smith: 17.4 (best)
Target shareColeman: 15%Smith: 32% (best)
Targets / gameColeman: 4.0Smith: 10.3 (best)
Air yards shareColeman: 24%Smith: 48% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsColeman: AboveSmith: Above
WOPRColeman: 0.40Smith: 0.81 (best)
RZ target shareColeman: 15%Smith: 27% (best)
Catch rateColeman: 79% (best)Smith: 63%
SeparationColeman: 2.9 yds (best)Smith: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedColeman: −0.6Smith: +0.3 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredColeman: Earned by usage 7.4Scored 10.9Smith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3
Vacated targets this weekColeman: 0.0Smith: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareColeman: 17%Smith: 33% (best)
Range
FloorColeman: 3.5 (best)Smith: 0.0
CeilingColeman: 11.4 (best)Smith: 9.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerColeman: 28%Smith: 17%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Coleman: 10%Smith: 29% (best)
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterColeman: 40%Smith: 8% (best)
SteadinessColeman: Up & down±6.8 ptsSmith: Steady (best)±8.4 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionColeman: A- (best)2026, 7 gmSmith: B2026, 6 gm
Game scriptColeman: Expected to lead (best)Smith: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterColeman: 0.9 (best)Smith: 1.3
Defense funnelColeman: PassSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedColeman: 15th (average)Smith: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBColeman: Allen (Active)Smith: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outColeman: Robinson (LB)Smith: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceColeman: OpenturfSmith: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleColeman: Off a byeSmith: Normal
Opp paceColeman: 17th (average)Smith: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameColeman: 2.911th (average)Smith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedColeman: 67%29th (soft)Smith: 67%28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgColeman: 15.7Smith: 20.2 (best)
Last 5 avgColeman: 12.8Smith: 17.3 (best)
vs seasonColeman: +4.8 (Rising) (best)Smith: +3.0
Yards per route runColeman: 2.34Smith: 2.52 (best)
Receiving aDOTColeman: 14.3Smith: 12.2
Target share trendColeman: SteadySmith: Steady
Games since injuryColeman: None recentlySmith: 0
Crowd
Started in leaguesColeman: 47%Smith: 49% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterColeman: WR55 (best)Smith: WR63
Yards linereceivingColeman: 29.5Smith: Our estimate
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