Godwin
WR · TB vs ATL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Rest day
Projected points8.4pts
Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Toss-up
Bench
Chris Godwin Jr. or DeVonta Smith: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Chris Godwin Jr. gets the nod over DeVonta Smith.
- Ahead by
- +2.7pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- Lower
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 38%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If the weather in Chris Godwin Jr.'s game turns worse, start DeVonta Smith.
Risk
Weather in Chris Godwin Jr.'s game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
GodwinToss-upWR · TB vs ATLUsually 7.6+0.8pts this week
Helps him
- +1.8ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.30 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
- more targets this weekEdgeWith Egbuka out, more targets should come his way this week.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 29.5 receiving yards, below his usual 34.7.
- 4.9per gameHe sees only 4.9 targets a game.
SmithFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 32%targetsHe draws 32% of his team’s targets.
- 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
- WASvs WRsEdgeWAS is the 11th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGodwin: 8.4 (best)Smith: 5.7
TD pointsof the projectionGodwin: 1.8Smith: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekGodwin: 0.30Smith: Our estimate
Projected team pointsGodwin: 23.0 (best)Smith: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameGodwin: 0.4Smith: 0.8 (best)
Role
Snap shareGodwin: 82%Smith: 87% (best)
Usage worthptsGodwin: 7.8Smith: 17.4 (best)
Target shareGodwin: 20%Smith: 32% (best)
Targets / gameGodwin: 4.9Smith: 10.3 (best)
Air yards shareGodwin: 9%Smith: 48% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsGodwin: BelowSmith: Above
WOPRGodwin: 0.32Smith: 0.81 (best)
RZ target shareGodwin: 11%Smith: 27% (best)
Catch rateGodwin: 79% (best)Smith: 63%
SeparationGodwin: 4.8 yds (best)Smith: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedGodwin: +1.3 (best)Smith: +0.3
Usage worth vs scoredGodwin: Earned by usage 7.8Scored 7.6Smith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3
Vacated targets this weekGodwin: 9.2 (best)Smith: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareGodwin: 0%Smith: 33% (best)
Range
FloorGodwin: 6.1 (best)Smith: 0.0
CeilingGodwin: 11.7 (best)Smith: 9.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGodwin: 0%Smith: 17%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Godwin: 4%Smith: 29% (best)
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterGodwin: 34%Smith: 8% (best)
SteadinessGodwin: Steady (best)±4.2 ptsSmith: Steady±8.4 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionGodwin: B-2026, 7 gmSmith: B (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptGodwin: Expected to lead (best)Smith: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGodwin: 1.3Smith: 1.3
Defense funnelGodwin: NeutralSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedGodwin: 29th (soft) (best)Smith: 28th (soft)
Starting QBGodwin: Mayfield (Active)Smith: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outGodwin: None listedSmith: Kinlaw (DT)
WeatherGodwin: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rainSmith: No concern
Roof / surfacegrassGodwin: OpenSmith: Open
Rest / scheduleGodwin: NormalSmith: Normal
Opp paceGodwin: 21st (average)Smith: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameGodwin: 4.7 (best)30th (soft)Smith: 3.826th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedGodwin: 64%22nd (soft)Smith: 67% (best)28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgGodwin: 7.1Smith: 20.2 (best)
Last 5 avgGodwin: 7.2Smith: 17.3 (best)
vs seasonGodwin: −0.5 (Steady)Smith: +3.0 (best)
Yards per route runGodwin: 1.33Smith: 2.52 (best)
Receiving aDOTGodwin: 3.5Smith: 12.2
Target share trendGodwin: RisingSmith: Steady
Games since injuryGodwin: None recentlySmith: 0
Crowd
Started in leaguesGodwin: 39%Smith: 49% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGodwin: WR47 (best)Smith: WR63
Yards linereceivingGodwin: 29.5Smith: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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