New

Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Sutton

WR · DEN vs KC

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points8.6ptsUsage estimate

First out

Douglas

WR · MIA vs NE

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points7.6pts

Toss-up

Bench

Caleb Douglas or Courtland Sutton: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Courtland Sutton gets the nod over Caleb Douglas.

Ahead by: +1.0pts; over Douglas
Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Sutton's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Flips if

Start Caleb Douglas instead if you want the easier matchup (the 16th softest defense for receivers, while Sutton faces the 7th toughest defense for receivers).

Risk

Caleb Douglas has played 1 game since missing time. Weather in Caleb Douglas's game: Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

SuttonToss-upWR · DEN vs KCUsually 5.5+3.0pts this week

Helps him

+3.7ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.

Hurts him

−0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
4.7per gameHe sees only 4.7 targets a game.
KCvs WRsEdgeKC is the 7th toughest defense for receivers.

DouglasFirst outWR · MIA vs NEUsually 13.1−5.5pts this week

Helps him

21.0last weekHe caught 2 for 70 yards and two touchdowns last week (21.0 points).

Hurts him

−2.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.21 touchdowns, below his usual 0.67.
−2.4ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 37.5 receiving yards, below his usual 61.0.
−0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, below his usual 3.0.
4.3per gameHe sees only 4.3 targets a game.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection8.67.6

TD pointsof the projectionOur estimate1.3

Expected TDsthis weekOur estimate0.21

Projected team points19.818.0

Red zone targetsper game1.00.7

Role

Snap share77%82%

Usage worthpts8.67.5

Target share17%18%

Targets / game4.74.3

Air yards share30%23%

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsIn line2 RZ targets

WOPR0.480.42

RZ target share27%50%

Catch rate48%69%

Separation2.8 yds5.3 yds

YAC over expected+0.6+0.8

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 8.6Scored 5.5Earned by usage 7.5Scored 13.1

Vacated targets this week3.00.0

Inside 10 target share33%100%

Range

Floor4.94.2

Ceiling13.112.5

Points from TDssteadier when lower16%31%

Big weeks (20+ pts)8%3 games

Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is better44%3 games

SteadinessUp & down±5.9 pts3 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionD2026, 6 gmC+2026, 7 gm

Game scriptExpected to trailExpected to trail

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.71.0

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed12th (average)19th (average)

Starting QBNix (Active)Willis (Active)

Opp defender outNorman-Lott (DT)None listed

WeatherNo concernOutdoor73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain

Roof / surfacegrassOpenOpen

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace24th (slow)16th (average)

Opp deep targets allowed / game3.217th (average)2.01st (tough)

Opp catch rate allowed57%5th (tough)66%26th (soft)

Form

Last 3 avg7.113.1

Last 5 avg6.013.1

vs season+1.5 (Rising)Rising

Yards per route run0.952.86

Receiving aDOT11.110.5

Target share trendSteadySteady

Games since injuryNone recently1

Crowd

Started in leaguesNot widely started61%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterWR45WR51

Yards linereceivingOur estimate37.5

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

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