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Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Sutton

WR · DEN vs KC

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points8.6ptsUsage estimate

First out

Godwin

WR · TB vs ATL

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Rest day

Projected points8.4pts

Toss-up

Bench

Chris Godwin Jr. or Courtland Sutton: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Courtland Sutton gets the nod over Chris Godwin Jr.

Ahead by: +0.2pts; over Godwin
Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Sutton's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Godwin

The case for Godwin is more of the targets (20% to 17%) and an offense expected to score more (23.0 points to 19.8).

Flips if

Start Chris Godwin Jr. instead if you need a safe week: he has a safer floor (6.1 to 4.9).

Risk

Weather in Chris Godwin Jr.'s game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

SuttonToss-upWR · DEN vs KCUsually 5.5+3.0pts this week

Helps him

+3.7ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.

Hurts him

−0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
4.7per gameHe sees only 4.7 targets a game.
KCvs WRsEdgeKC is the 7th toughest defense for receivers.

GodwinFirst outWR · TB vs ATLUsually 7.6+0.8pts this week

Helps him

+1.8ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.30 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
more targets this weekEdgeWith Egbuka out, more targets should come his way this week.

Hurts him

−0.5ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 29.5 receiving yards, below his usual 34.7.
4.9per gameHe sees only 4.9 targets a game.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection8.68.4

TD pointsof the projectionOur estimate1.8

Expected TDsthis weekOur estimate0.30

Projected team points19.823.0

Red zone targetsper game1.00.4

Role

Snap share77%82%

Usage worthpts8.67.8

Target share17%20%

Targets / game4.74.9

Air yards share30%9%

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsIn lineBelow

WOPR0.480.32

RZ target share27%11%

Catch rate48%79%

Separation2.8 yds4.8 yds

YAC over expected+0.6+1.3

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 8.6Scored 5.5Earned by usage 7.8Scored 7.6

Vacated targets this week3.09.2

Inside 10 target share33%0%

Range

Floor4.96.1

Ceiling13.111.7

Points from TDssteadier when lower16%0%

Big weeks (20+ pts)8%4%

Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is better44%34%

SteadinessUp & down±5.9 ptsSteady±4.2 pts

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionD2026, 6 gmB-2026, 7 gm

Game scriptExpected to trailExpected to lead

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.71.3

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed12th (average)29th (soft)

Starting QBNix (Active)Mayfield (Active)

Opp defender outNorman-Lott (DT)None listed

WeatherNo concernOutdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain

Roof / surfacegrassOpenOpen

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace24th (slow)21st (average)

Opp deep targets allowed / game3.217th (average)4.730th (soft)

Opp catch rate allowed57%5th (tough)64%22nd (soft)

Form

Last 3 avg7.17.1

Last 5 avg6.07.2

vs season+1.5 (Rising)−0.5 (Steady)

Yards per route run0.951.33

Receiving aDOT11.13.5

Target share trendSteadyRising

Crowd

Started in leaguesNot widely started39%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterWR45WR47

Yards linereceivingOur estimate29.5

Deciding on someone else?

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