Jackson
QB · BAL vs TEN
Proj pts
17.9pts
market
Williams
QB · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
17.7pts
opportunity
Caleb Williams or Lamar Jackson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Lamar Jackson over Caleb Williams by 0.2. Lamar Jackson leads at 17.9. Caleb Williams is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 90% of managers started Jackson.
Availability & news
Lamar JacksonPractice: Limited
Jackson (back) was a full participant at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Caleb WilliamsPractice: DNP
Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Rushing floor5.2 rush att/g
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs QB
Cons
- Shaky floor8.7 floor
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs QB
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Jackson 23%, Williams 6%.
Jackson (Practice: Limited): “Jackson (back) was a full participant at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Williams (Practice: DNP): “Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Jackson 20.4, Williams 7.7 (PPR points).
Why Lamar Jackson
Start Lamar Jackson — projects 17.9, a favorable matchup vs TEN.
Lamar Jackson projects 17.9 points on a 8.7–20.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TEN. Usage: pass attempts / game at 23.2. Net: start Lamar Jackson this week.
Working for Jackson: Rushing floor (5.2 rush att/g), High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs QB).
Working against Jackson: Shaky floor (8.7 floor).
Where Jackson leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.9 vs 17.7); Implied team total (27.0 vs 23.5); Boom rate (23% vs 12%); Yards per attempt (8.4 vs 6.9); Touchdown rate (7% vs 5%); Rush attempts / game (5.2 vs 4.5); Rush yards / game (26.8 vs 22.5); Rushing production share (21% vs 17%).
Why Caleb Williams
Sit Caleb Williams — projects 17.7, a favorable matchup vs NYJ.
Caleb Williams projects 17.7 points on a 13.6–22.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: pass attempts / game at 33.4. Net: bench Caleb Williams this week.
Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs QB).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Floor (13.6 vs 8.7); Ceiling (22.5 vs 20.8); Pass attempts (33.4 vs 23.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs A-); Last 3 avg (21.2 vs 20.1); Last 5 avg (21.5 vs 17.1); vs season (+2.9 vs +2.7); Consistency (61% vs 49%); Bust rate (6% vs 23%); Pass attempts / game (33.4 vs 23.2); Completions / game (19.4 vs 14.8).
Recent form
Lamar Jackson's last 5 games: PPR points 4.7, 20.4, 25, 14.8, 20.4 (oldest to newest).
Caleb Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 21, 23, 18.6, 37.3, 7.7 (oldest to newest).
Jackson has already beaten Williams's 17.7 projection in 3 of his 5; Williams has beaten Jackson's 17.9 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Lamar Jackson (BAL) faces TEN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -11.5.
Caleb Williams (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Jackson's edge is 0.2 points (17.9 to 17.7). Williams's ceiling (22.5) clears Jackson's projection, so a big game from Williams flips it. Jackson's floor (8.7) sits under Williams's projection, so a quiet game from Jackson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Caleb Williams comparisons
- Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott17.7 · 17.7
- Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence17.7 · 17.8
- Caleb Williams or Joe Burrow17.7 · 17.6
- Bryce Young or Caleb Williams17.2 · 17.7
More Lamar Jackson comparisons
- Drake Maye or Lamar Jackson17.9 · 17.9
- Lamar Jackson or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence17.9 · 17.8
- Dak Prescott or Lamar Jackson17.7 · 17.9
This week's toughest calls
- Drake Maye or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Brock Purdy or Jayden Daniels17.1 · 17.0
- Bo Nix or Jared Goff16.7 · 16.7
- Geno Smith or Jordan Love16.3 · 16.3
- Jayden Daniels or Patrick Mahomes17.0 · 17.0
- Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes17.1 · 17.0
- More QB start/sit calls (quarterbacks this week)