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Scoring
#1 Start

Williams

QB · CHI vs NYJ

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

17.7pts

opportunity

Mod Conf
Bench

Mariota

QB · WAS vs IND

Sun 9:30 AM

Proj pts

17.1pts

market

Mod Conf

Caleb Williams or Marcus Mariota: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Caleb Williams over Marcus Mariota by 0.6. Caleb Williams leads at 17.7. Marcus Mariota is the first one out, 0.6 short.

Crowd: 37% of managers started Mariota.

Availability & news

  • Caleb WilliamsPractice: DNP

    Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Caleb WilliamsStart
QB · CHI vs NYJ

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs QB
Marcus MariotaBench
QB · WAS vs IND

Pros

  • Rushing floor5.0 rush att/g

Cons

  • Shaky floor9.8 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WilliamsStart
MariotaBench
Projection17.717.1
Floor13.69.8
Ceiling22.520.1
Pass attempts33.422.7
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A+C+
Implied team total23.522.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Williams 6%, Mariota 30%.

Williams (Practice: DNP): “Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Williams 7.7 (PPR points).

Why Caleb Williams

Start Caleb Williams — projects 17.7, a favorable matchup vs NYJ.

Caleb Williams projects 17.7 points on a 13.6–22.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: pass attempts / game at 33.4. Net: start Caleb Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs QB).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.7 vs 17.1); Floor (13.6 vs 9.8); Ceiling (22.5 vs 20.1); Pass attempts (33.4 vs 22.7); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs C+); Implied team total (23.5 vs 22.5); Last 3 avg (21.2 vs 14.6); Last 5 avg (21.5 vs 11.9); vs season (+2.9 vs -0.8); Consistency (61% vs 38%); Bust rate (6% vs 30%); Pass attempts / game (33.4 vs 22.7); Completions / game (19.4 vs 13.9); Touchdown rate (5% vs 4%).

Why Marcus Mariota

Sit Marcus Mariota — projects 17.1, an even matchup vs IND.

Marcus Mariota projects 17.1 points on a 9.8–20.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against IND. Usage: pass attempts / game at 22.7. Net: bench Marcus Mariota this week.

Working for Mariota: Rushing floor (5.0 rush att/g).

Working against Mariota: Shaky floor (9.8 floor).

Where Mariota leads the head-to-head: Boom rate (20% vs 12%); Yards per attempt (7.5 vs 6.9); Rush attempts / game (5.0 vs 4.5); Rush yards / game (29.7 vs 22.5); Rushing production share (28% vs 17%).

Recent form

Caleb Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 21, 23, 18.6, 37.3, 7.7 (oldest to newest).

Marcus Mariota's last 4 games: PPR points 3.7, 8.7, 14.7, 20.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Williams has already beaten Mariota's 17.1 projection in 4 of his 5; Mariota has beaten Williams's 17.7 in 1 of his 4.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Caleb Williams (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.

Marcus Mariota (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.

What flips it

Williams's edge is 0.6 points (17.7 to 17.1). Mariota's ceiling (20.1) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Mariota flips it. Williams's floor (13.6) sits under Mariota's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Caleb Williams comparisons

More Marcus Mariota comparisons

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