Lamb
WR · DAL vs ARI
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points19.5pts
Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Start
Bench
CeeDee Lamb or DeVonta Smith: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start CeeDee Lamb over DeVonta Smith.
- Ahead by
- +13.8pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- High
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on CeeDee Lamb or a bigger role for DeVonta Smith.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
LambStartWR · DAL vs ARIUsually 22.2−2.7pts this week
Helps him
- 2.3red zoneHe gets 2.3 red zone targets a game, a real path to touchdowns.
- 30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
- 14.0floorA quiet week still projects to about 14.0 points.
Hurts him
- −1.2ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 80.5 receiving yards, below his usual 93.0.
- −1.1ptscatchesHis lines put him at 6.5 catches, below his usual 7.6.
- softestper targetEdgeARI allows few WR chances because few passes go to receivers against them; per target they’re soft (2.00 pts, softest).
- −7.8last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 7.8 points below his season average.
SmithFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 87%snapsHe is on the field for 87% of snaps.
- WASvs WRsEdgeWAS is the 11th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionLamb: 19.5 (best)Smith: 5.7
TD pointsof the projectionLamb: 4.8Smith: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekLamb: 0.80Smith: Our estimate
Projected team pointsLamb: 30.8 (best)Smith: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameLamb: 2.3 (best)Smith: 0.8
Role
Snap shareLamb: 79%Smith: 87% (best)
Usage worthptsLamb: 20.5 (best)Smith: 17.4
Target shareLamb: 31%Smith: 32% (best)
Targets / gameLamb: 11.6 (best)Smith: 10.3
Air yards shareLamb: 41%Smith: 48% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsLamb: AboveSmith: Above
WOPRLamb: 0.75Smith: 0.81 (best)
RZ target shareLamb: 34% (best)Smith: 27%
Catch rateLamb: 65% (best)Smith: 63%
SeparationLamb: 2.6 yds (best)Smith: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedLamb: −0.3Smith: +0.3 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredLamb: Earned by usage 20.5Scored 22.2Smith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3
Vacated targets this weekLamb: 0.0Smith: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareLamb: 33%Smith: 33%
Range
FloorLamb: 14.0 (best)Smith: 0.0
CeilingLamb: 33.5 (best)Smith: 9.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerLamb: 23%Smith: 17%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Lamb: 40% (best)Smith: 29%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterLamb: 13%Smith: 8% (best)
SteadinessLamb: Steady±11.4 ptsSmith: Steady (best)±8.4 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionLamb: B-2026, 7 gmSmith: B (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptLamb: Expected to lead (best)Smith: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterLamb: 1.1 (best)Smith: 1.3
Defense funnelLamb: PassSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedLamb: 21st (average)Smith: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBLamb: Prescott (Active)Smith: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outLamb: None listedSmith: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceLamb: Retractable roofturfSmith: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleLamb: NormalSmith: Normal
Opp paceLamb: 2nd (fast) (best)Smith: 12th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameLamb: 3.115th (average)Smith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedLamb: 60%11th (average)Smith: 67% (best)28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgLamb: 14.4Smith: 20.2 (best)
Last 5 avgLamb: 21.0 (best)Smith: 17.3
vs seasonLamb: −7.8 (Cooling)Smith: +3.0 (best)
Yards per route runLamb: 2.93 (best)Smith: 2.52
Receiving aDOTLamb: 10.6Smith: 12.2
Target share trendLamb: RisingSmith: Steady
Games since injuryLamb: None recentlySmith: 0
Crowd
Started in leaguesLamb: 100% (best)Smith: 49%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterLamb: WR3 (best)Smith: WR63
Yards linereceivingLamb: 80.5Smith: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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