Jacobs
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
14.8pts
opportunity
Harvey
RB · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
13.8pts
market
Josh Jacobs or RJ Harvey: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Josh Jacobs. Bench RJ Harvey. Josh Jacobs leads at 14.8. RJ Harvey is the first one out, 1.1 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Goal-line back1.5 GL carries/g
- Positive game scriptFavored
- High floor11.5 floor
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Spike upside21.7 ceiling
- Big-play upside31% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back23% of touches
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Jacobs 14%, Harvey 31%.
Latest game on the card: Jacobs 1.3, Harvey 10.7 (PPR points).
Why Josh Jacobs
Start Josh Jacobs — projects 14.8, an even matchup vs TB, but the role is cooling.
Josh Jacobs projects 14.8 points on a 11.5–19.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 15.6. Net: start Josh Jacobs this week.
Working for Jacobs: Goal-line back (1.5 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (11.5 floor).
Where Jacobs leads the head-to-head: Projection (14.8 vs 13.8); Floor (11.5 vs 8.1); Touch share (33% vs 23%); Opportunity score (14.1 vs 10.4); Last 3 avg (9.8 vs 7.7); Consistency (50% vs 40%); Bust rate (14% vs 25%); Carries / game (15.6 vs 8.6); Touches / game (18.0 vs 11.4); Yards per carry (4.0 vs 3.7); Snap share (59% vs 42%); Goal line carries (22 vs 10); Red zone carries (58 vs 31).
Why RJ Harvey
Sit RJ Harvey — projects 13.8, a run-funnel matchup vs SF, but the role is cooling.
RJ Harvey projects 13.8 points on a 8.1–21.7 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against SF. Usage: carries / game at 8.6. Net: bench RJ Harvey this week.
Working for Harvey: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Spike upside (21.7 ceiling), Big-play upside (31% boom weeks).
Working against Harvey: Committee back (23% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Harvey leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (21.7 vs 19.9); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Implied team total (22.3 vs 21.0); Last 5 avg (12.8 vs 11.3); vs season (-0.1 vs -2.0); Boom rate (31% vs 14%).
Recent form
Josh Jacobs's last 5 games: PPR points 10.1, 17.2, 23.2, 4.8, 1.3 (oldest to newest).
RJ Harvey's last 5 games: PPR points 22.1, 18.6, 4.3, 8.1, 10.7 (oldest to newest).
Jacobs has already beaten Harvey's 13.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Harvey has beaten Jacobs's 14.8 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Josh Jacobs (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
RJ Harvey (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Jacobs's edge is 1 points (14.8 to 13.8). Harvey's ceiling (21.7) clears Jacobs's projection, so a big game from Harvey flips it. Jacobs's floor (11.5) sits under Harvey's projection, so a quiet game from Jacobs flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Josh Jacobs comparisons
- Josh Jacobs or Rhamondre Stevenson14.8 · 15.1
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt or Josh Jacobs14.4 · 14.8
- Jadarian Price or Josh Jacobs14.0 · 14.8
- Josh Jacobs or Kyle Monangai14.8 · 15.7
More RJ Harvey comparisons
- J.K. Dobbins or RJ Harvey13.6 · 13.8
- Jadarian Price or RJ Harvey14.0 · 13.8
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt or RJ Harvey14.4 · 13.8
- RJ Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson13.8 · 12.7
This week's toughest calls
- Chuba Hubbard or James Cook21.7 · 21.7
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery17.3 · 17.3
- Aaron Jones or Jeremiyah Love22.7 · 22.6
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)