Wilson
WR · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
16.4pts
market
Golden
WR · GB vs TB
Proj pts
15.3pts
market
Matthew Golden or Michael Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Michael Wilson. Bench Matthew Golden. Michael Wilson leads at 16.4. Matthew Golden is the first one out, 1.2 short.
Crowd: 81% of managers started Wilson, 76% started Golden.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
- High floor12.4 floor
Pros
- Spike upside26.2 ceiling
- Big-play upside31% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Wilson 17, Golden 2.
Latest game on the card: Wilson 25.9, Golden 21 (PPR points).
Why Michael Wilson
Start Michael Wilson — projects 16.4, a favorable matchup vs NYG.
Michael Wilson projects 16.4 points on a 12.4–24.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 7.4. Net: start Michael Wilson this week.
Working for Wilson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR), High floor (12.4 floor).
Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.4 vs 15.3); Floor (12.4 vs 3.0); Target share (19% vs 12%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 21.0); Last 5 avg (16.4 vs 10.3); Targets / game (7.4 vs 3.1); Snap share (81% vs 53%); Red zone targets (17 vs 2).
Why Matthew Golden
Sit Matthew Golden — projects 15.3, an even matchup vs TB, with a rising role.
Matthew Golden projects 15.3 points on a 3.0–26.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: bench Matthew Golden this week.
Working for Golden: Spike upside (26.2 ceiling), Big-play upside (31% boom weeks).
Working against Golden: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Golden leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (26.2 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (15.4 vs 13.4); vs season (+3.6 vs -1.4); Consistency (27% vs 20%); Boom rate (31% vs 29%); Bust rate (23% vs 24%).
Recent form
Michael Wilson's last 5 games: PPR points 19.9, 21.9, 10.6, 3.8, 25.9 (oldest to newest).
Matthew Golden's last 5 games: PPR points 3.2, 1.8, 15.5, 9.8, 21 (oldest to newest).
Wilson has already beaten Golden's 15.3 projection in 3 of his 5; Golden has beaten Wilson's 16.4 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Michael Wilson (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -2.5.
Matthew Golden (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Wilson's edge is 1.1 points (16.4 to 15.3). Golden's ceiling (26.2) clears Wilson's projection, so a big game from Golden flips it. Wilson's floor (12.4) sits under Golden's projection, so a quiet game from Wilson flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Matthew Golden comparisons
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Malik Nabers or Matthew Golden15.1 · 15.3
- Matthew Golden or Rashee Rice15.3 · 15.7
- Jalen Coker or Matthew Golden14.4 · 15.3
More Michael Wilson comparisons
- Jordan Addison or Michael Wilson16.3 · 16.4
- Michael Wilson or Tee Higgins16.4 · 16.8
- Christian Watson or Michael Wilson16.8 · 16.4
- George Pickens or Michael Wilson16.9 · 16.4
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)