Wilson
WR · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
16.4pts
market
Addison
WR · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
16.3pts
market
Jordan Addison or Michael Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Michael Wilson over Jordan Addison by 0.1. Michael Wilson leads at 16.4. Jordan Addison is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 81% of managers started Wilson, 59% started Addison.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
- High floor12.4 floor
Pros
- Every-down role85% of snaps
- Spike upside21.4 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor3.4 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Wilson 16.4, Addison 7.7.
Latest game on the card: Wilson 25.9, Addison 20 (PPR points).
Why Michael Wilson
Start Michael Wilson — projects 16.4, a favorable matchup vs NYG.
Michael Wilson projects 16.4 points on a 12.4–24.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 7.4. Net: start Michael Wilson this week.
Working for Wilson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR), High floor (12.4 floor).
Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.4 vs 16.3); Floor (12.4 vs 3.4); Ceiling (24.5 vs 21.4); Target share (19% vs 18%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs C); Last 3 avg (13.4 vs 8.0); Last 5 avg (16.4 vs 7.7); Boom rate (29% vs 21%); Targets / game (7.4 vs 5.6); Red zone targets (17 vs 13).
Why Jordan Addison
Sit Jordan Addison — projects 16.3, an even matchup vs MIA, with a rising role.
Jordan Addison projects 16.3 points on a 3.4–21.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: bench Jordan Addison this week.
Working for Addison: Every-down role (85% of snaps), Spike upside (21.4 ceiling).
Working against Addison: Shaky floor (3.4 floor).
Where Addison leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (24.5 vs 23.5); vs season (+0.7 vs -1.4); Consistency (42% vs 20%); Bust rate (21% vs 24%); Snap share (85% vs 81%).
Recent form
Michael Wilson's last 5 games: PPR points 19.9, 21.9, 10.6, 3.8, 25.9 (oldest to newest).
Jordan Addison's last 5 games: PPR points 12.5, 1.8, 0, 4.1, 20 (oldest to newest).
Wilson has already beaten Addison's 16.3 projection in 3 of his 5; Addison has beaten Wilson's 16.4 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Michael Wilson (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -2.5.
Jordan Addison (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Wilson's edge is 0.1 points (16.4 to 16.3). Addison's ceiling (21.4) clears Wilson's projection, so a big game from Addison flips it. Wilson's floor (12.4) sits under Addison's projection, so a quiet game from Wilson flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Jordan Addison comparisons
- Jordan Addison or Tee Higgins16.3 · 16.8
- Christian Watson or Jordan Addison16.8 · 16.3
- Jordan Addison or Rashee Rice16.3 · 15.7
- Jordan Addison or Matthew Golden16.3 · 15.3
More Michael Wilson comparisons
- Michael Wilson or Tee Higgins16.4 · 16.8
- Christian Watson or Michael Wilson16.8 · 16.4
- George Pickens or Michael Wilson16.9 · 16.4
- Michael Wilson or Rashee Rice16.4 · 15.7
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)