Research, not recommendations

How the NFL props numbers are made

Every props page on Nuvela puts a sportsbook line beside a projection for the same stat and shows the record behind each. This page says where each number comes from, what it counts and how often it moves, so you can judge it for yourself.

Where the lines come from

The lines come from The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. For each market a page shows the consensus line across the books that posted one, and each book’s own Over and Under price beneath it. A line one book posted alone is marked as one book.

“Since open” is how far the consensus line has moved since the books first posted it this week. After a game, the closing line is the last consensus before kickoff, the most informed number on the board, and the one every projection is graded against.

How the projection is made

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week. It is built from the player’s recent usage and output, his role on his team, his injury status and the game he is in. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01, median-adjusted where it says so. A player ruled out gets no projection, and a player on a bye has no line.

The gap between the line and the projection is shown as a number and as a share of the line. A wide gap is a reading, not a verdict: it says the two sources disagree, and the rest of the page shows why they might.

What the hit rates count

“Cleared L5” is how many of the player’s last five games went over the current line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection is on. Early in a season the window reaches into last season, and the label says so. The game log on each page shows every game in the window with its number, so the count can be checked.

How often everything is refreshed

Lines are rechecked through the day, and the hub shows when they were last checked. Projections refresh each morning, and again when an injury report or the news changes a player’s status. Each player page carries the time its content last moved. The board rolls to the next week on Tuesday morning, US Eastern time, and last week’s results stay on the hub until then.

What these pages are, and are not

These pages are research: the line, the projection and the record, side by side, with the sources named. They do not tell you what to do with a line, and nothing on them is a promise about a result. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers. The pages are for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

Questions

What are NFL player props?

A player prop is a sportsbook line on one player's stat in one game, such as 68.5 receiving yards, with an Over price and an Under price. These pages list every posted line beside the projection for the same stat, so you can see how far apart the two are.

Where do the lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each page shows the consensus line and, market by market, each book's Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is the projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from the player's recent usage and output, his role on his team, his injury status and the game he is in. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01, median-adjusted where it says so. A player ruled out gets no projection.

How often is this updated?

Lines are rechecked through the day, and the hub shows when they were last checked. Projections refresh each morning and again when an injury report or the news changes a player's status. The board rolls to the next week on Tuesday morning, US Eastern time.

Is this betting advice?

No. These pages are research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the pages are for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.