RB · Washington Commanders
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4 · Neutral site
- Line
- 60.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela
- 59.3
- our projection
- Difference
- −1.2
- −2%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 7 of 10
- Line since open
- +6, from 54.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 50% | 46% | −4% | 2 of 5 | 46% | +4% |
| Rushing Yards | 60.5 | 66.1 | +5.6 | 2 of 5 | 54.5 | +6 |
| Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 15.8 | +1.3 | 2 of 5 | 13.5 | +1 |
| 1st TD | 14% | 6% | −8% | 0 of 5 | 13% | +1% |
| 2+ TDs | 9% | 9% | 0% | 1 of 5 | — | — |
| Longest Rush | 13.5 | 10.1 | −3.4 | 1 of 5 | 13.5 | level |
| Last TD | 12% | 7% | −5% | 1 of 5 | 11% | +1% |
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
- Mon 6:33 PM54.5opened
- Tue 6:34 AM55.5+1
- Tue 6:33 PM54.5−1
- Thu 12:30 PM60.5+6
- Thu 6:30 PM62.5+2
- Sat 9:30 AM60.5−2Croskey-Merritt has served as the Commanders' RB1 this season, but his backfield snap count for Week 4 against the Colts figures to be larger due to the absence of Rachaad White (shoulder).
Opened 54.5, now 60.5. The move is with our read, which is the thing worth checking before the gap is a reason.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 642 games−0.1
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 642 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 640 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 642 games0
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 3
- Consensus line
- 60.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 59.3
- −1.2 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 43
- regular season
- Average
- 47.3
- −13.2 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 43 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 43 | 40%2/5 | 50%2/4 |
| Season | 43 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last season | 32 | 29%5/17 | 38%6/16 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 47.3
- yards
- Median
- 43
- yards
- Above 60.5
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0
- yards
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ PHI | 63 | 40.5 | +22.5 |
| Week 2 | @ DAL | 43 | 51.5 | −8.5 |
| Week 3 | vs SEA | 36 | 38.5 | −2.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 57%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
- Rachaad White28% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Kaytron Allen12% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Jacoby JonesWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Jeremy McNicholsRB · Same room — his availability swings the carries in play.Ir
- Terry McLaurinWR · leg · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Doubtful
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
WAS · Washington Commanders
IND · Indianapolis Colts
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 10
- 6 WAS · 4 IND
- Ruled out
- 10
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 0
- Touch his workload
- 3
- Jacoby Jones, Jeremy McNichols +1
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
3 names on these lists reach him directly. Jacoby Jones, Jeremy McNichols +1 — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 10 ruled out and 0 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 60.5 rushing yards. He has cleared this line in 1 of 3 games. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 59.31. IND ranks 3rd of 32 in loaded boxes (8+ defenders) and 27th in rushing yards allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
3 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 46.5
- combined
- WAS implied total
- 21
- underdog
- IND implied total
- 25.5
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 28.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Neutral site
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 66
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 38.7
- 59% pass
- His carries
- 15.7
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 3.3
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.4
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Indianapolis Colts defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Indianapolis Colts actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 24 | 22.1 | 21st of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 114 | 91.4 | 27th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.8 | 4.1 | 26th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing — the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 11% | 16% | 27th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards — where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 12% | 10% | 22nd of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 45% | 23% | 3rd of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 21.9 | 28th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 28.1 | 28th of 32 |
| WR | 35 | 20th of 32 |
| TE | 17.5 | 26th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson2025 · Wk 10 | 84 |
| Kenneth Walker III2026 · Wk 2 | 117 |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 16 | 117 |
| De'Von Achane2025 · Wk 1 | 55 |
| Kareem Hunt2025 · Wk 12 | 104 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 19 | 36 | 1.9 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 59.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 59.5 | −116 | −111 |
| BetRivers | 62.5 | −115 | −115 |
| Bovada | 60.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 60.5 | −112 | −112 |
| FanDuel | 60.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.