TE · Green Bay Packers
Jonnu Smith
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4
- Line
- 1.5
- Receptions
- Nuvela
- 1.7
- our projection
- Difference
- +0.2
- +16%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- 0, from 1.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 6.5 | 12.5 | +6 | 3 of 5 | 7.5 | −1 |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 15% | 21% | +7% | 0 of 5 | 12% | +2% |
| 1st TD | 4% | 2% | −2% | 0 of 5 | 3% | 0% |
| Last TD | 5% | 0% | −5% | 0 of 5 | 4% | +1% |
| 2+ TDs | 2% | 0% | −2% | 0 of 5 | — | — |
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
- Wed 8:01 PM1.5opened
- Fri 8:01 PM1.50
Opened 1.5, now 1.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove loosely together · 640 games+0.3
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 640 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 640 games0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 640 games0
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receptions, last 2
- Consensus line
- 1.5
- receptions
- Nuvela projection
- 1.7
- +0.2 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 2
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 1
- each week's own close
- Median
- 2
- regular season
- Average
- 2
- +0.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 2 | 100%2/2 | 100%1/1 |
| Last 5 | 2 | 75%3/4 | 67%2/3 |
| Season | 2 | 100%2/2 | 100%1/1 |
| Last season | 2 | 65%11/17 | 29%5/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 2
- of 3
- Average
- 2
- receptions
- Median
- 2
- receptions
- Above 1.5
- 2 of 2
- 100% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0
- receptions
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receptions | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ MIN | 2 | — | — |
| Week 3 | vs ATL | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 |
| — | — | — | 1.5 | — |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 33%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
- Tucker Kraft80% snap share · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own targets.
- Jayden ReedWR · head · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Luke MusgraveTE · Same room — his availability swings the targets in play.Out
- Savion WilliamsWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
GB · Green Bay Packers
TB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 7
- 4 GB · 3 TB
- Ruled out
- 7
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 0
- Touch his workload
- 3
- Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave +1
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
3 names on these lists reach him directly. Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave +1 — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 7 ruled out and 0 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Jonnu Smith at 1.5 receptions. He has cleared this line in 2 of 2 games. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 1.74. TB ranks 24th of 32 in yards per target allowed and 23rd in targets allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
3 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 39.5
- combined
- GB implied total
- 21.5
- favored
- TB implied total
- 18
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 26.7s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Outdoor
- outdoor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 60
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 43.8
- 73% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.7
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +2.2
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Tampa Bay Buccaneers defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game — the volume a receptions line rests on. | 7.7 | 7.2 | 23rd of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 74% | 73% | 17th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 61 | 52.1 | 23rd of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 8 | 7.2 | 24th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target — how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 6.1 | 5.7 | 21st of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception — tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 5.8 | 5.2 | 23rd of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 10% | 11% | 14th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 14.8 | 9th of 32 |
| RB | 17.8 | 12th of 32 |
| WR | 25.4 | 6th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 15.8 | 21st of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec |
|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta2025 · Wk 7 | 3 |
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 15 | 11 |
| Tommy Tremble2025 · Wk 18 | 3 |
| Trey McBride2025 · Wk 13 | 8 |
| Hunter Henry2025 · Wk 10 | 1 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 33% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 47% | 3 | 2 | 50 | 43 | 0 |
| — | — | 22% | — | — | — | — | — |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receptions
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +167 | −222 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +150 | −200 |
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +154 | −198 |
| FanDuel | 0.5 | −225 | +164 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.