TE · Kansas City Chiefs
Noah Gray
@ Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4 · Dome
- Line
- 7.5
- Longest Reception
- Nuvela
- 8.8
- our projection
- Difference
- +1.3
- +17%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 7 of 7
- Line since open
- 0, from 7.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 8.5 | 13.7 | +5.2 | 2 of 5 | 8.5 | level |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.4 | −0.1 | 2 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 13% | 0% | −12% | 0 of 5 | 13% | −1% |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | 8.8 | +1.3 | 2 of 5 | 7.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 3% | 0% | −3% | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | 0% | −3% | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| 2+ TDs | 1% | 0% | −1% | 0 of 5 | — | — |
How the line moved
- Thu 1:24 PM7.5opened
- Fri 7:25 AM7.50
Opened 7.5, now 7.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
We don’t have enough same-game history yet to publish which of this game’s other markets tend to move with this one. For now, treat correlated legs with care.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Longest Reception, last 3
- Consensus line
- 7.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 8.8
- +1.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 5
- regular season
- Average
- 9.7
- +2.2 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 5 | 33%1/3 | 0%0/2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 33%1/3 | 0%0/2 |
| Season | 5 | 33%1/3 | 0%0/2 |
| Last season | 10 | 54%7/13 | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 9.7
- yards
- Median
- 5
- yards
- Above 7.5
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0
- yards
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Longest Reception | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 5 | 8.5 | −3.5 |
| Week 2 | vs IND | 0 | 7.5 | −7.5 |
| Week 3 | @ MIA | 24 | — | — |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 63%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
- Travis Kelce78% snap share · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own targets.
- Jake Briningstool16% snap share · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own targets.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
KC · Kansas City Chiefs
No injuries reported.
LV · Las Vegas Raiders
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 4
- 0 KC · 4 LV
- Ruled out
- 4
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 0
- Touch his workload
- 0
- none directly
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
No listed player changes his own workload directly. Everyone on these reports reaches him through the game — a matchup and a script, not his role.
Across both clubs, 4 ruled out and 0 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Noah Gray at 7.5 longest reception. He has cleared this line in 1 of 3 games. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 8.8. LV ranks 29th of 32 in catch rate allowed and 29th in deep attempts allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
4 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- KC implied total
- 26
- favored
- LV implied total
- 21.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 31.3s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 63.7
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 35.7
- 56% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 5
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +3.7
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Las Vegas Raiders defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Las Vegas Raiders actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game — the volume a receptions line rests on. | 7.7 | 7.2 | 20th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 87% | 73% | 29th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 50.7 | 52.1 | 16th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 6.6 | 7.2 | 13th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target — how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 3.9 | 5.7 | 6th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception — tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.7 | 5.2 | 14th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 16% | 11% | 29th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 16.1 | 11th of 32 |
| RB | 17.1 | 10th of 32 |
| WR | 22.8 | 2nd of 32 |
| TEhis position | 21.1 | 30th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Value |
|---|---|
| Cole Kmet2025 · Wk 4 | — |
| Daniel Bellinger2025 · Wk 17 | — |
| Hunter Henry2025 · Wk 1 | — |
| Harold Fannin Jr.2025 · Wk 12 | — |
| Travis Kelce2025 · Wk 18 | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 63% | 3 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 55% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Longest Reception
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | 7.5 | −122 | −109 |
| Bovada | 7.5 | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 | −120 | −108 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.