RB · Detroit Lions
Sione Vaki
@ Carolina Panthers · Week 4
- Line
- 1%
- 2+ TDs
- Nuvela
- —
- Not enough games yet to state a reliable probability for this market — a rate off a handful of games reads the same across every TD market. No projection rather than an unstable number.
- Difference
- —
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 5 of 10
- Line since open
- 0, from 1.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 14% | — | — | 0 of 5 | 14% | 0% |
| Rushing Yards | 11.5 | 18.1 | +6.6 | 1 of 5 | 9.5 | +2 |
| 1st TD | 3% | — | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| 2+ TDs | 1% | — | — | 0 of 5 | — | — |
| Last TD | 3% | — | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | −1% |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
- Tue 5:20 AM1.5opened
- Sat 11:25 AM1.50
Opened 1.5, now 1.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
We don’t have enough same-game history yet to publish which of this game’s other markets tend to move with this one. For now, treat correlated legs with care.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
2+ TDs, last 3
- Consensus line
- 1.5
- Nuvela projection
- —
- Above the line
- 0 of 3
- 0% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 0
- regular season
- Average
- 0
- −1.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 0 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last 5 | 0 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Season | 0 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last season | 0 | 0%0/8 | 0%0/8 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 0
- Median
- 0
- Above 1.5
- 0 of 3
- 0% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | 2+ TDs | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs NO | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
| Week 2 | @ BUF | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
| Week 3 | vs NYJ | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 31%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
- Jahmyr Gibbs88% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Jacob Saylors0% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Isiah PachecoRB · Same room — his availability swings the carries in play.Ir
- Kendrick LawWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
DET · Detroit Lions
CAR · Carolina Panthers
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 11
- 5 DET · 6 CAR
- Ruled out
- 10
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 1
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 2
- Isiah Pacheco, Kendrick Law
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
2 names on these lists reach him directly. Isiah Pacheco, Kendrick Law — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 10 ruled out and 1 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Sione Vaki at 1.5 2+ TDs. He has cleared this line in 0 of 3 games. Not enough games yet to state a reliable probability for this market — a rate off a handful of games reads the same across every TD market. No projection rather than an unstable number. CAR ranks 32nd of 32 in rushing yards allowed and 32nd in yards per carry allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
3 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 51
- combined
- DET implied total
- 27.25
- favored
- CAR implied total
- 23.75
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 29.5s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Outdoor
- outdoor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 65.7
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 40.5
- 62% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 4.3
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +0.7
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Carolina Panthers defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Carolina Panthers actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 24.7 | 22.1 | 24th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 144.7 | 91.4 | 32nd of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 5.9 | 4.1 | 32nd of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing — the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 9% | 16% | 31st of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards — where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 13% | 10% | 25th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 12% | 23% | 27th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 19 | 23rd of 32 |
| RBhis position | 30.5 | 31st of 32 |
| WR | 23.2 | 3rd of 32 |
| TE | 14 | 18th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Value |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane2025 · Wk 5 | — |
| Javonte Williams2025 · Wk 6 | — |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 12 | — |
| Kyren Williams2025 · Wk 13 | — |
| Bucky Irving2025 · Wk 18 | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
2+ TDs
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 2.5 | +4000 | — |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +600 | — |
| BetRivers | 1.5 | +6000 | — |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +6000 | — |
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +20000 | — |
| Fanatics | 1.5 | +40000 | — |
| FanDuel | 1.5 | +8000 | — |
| Caesars | 1.5 | +7500 | — |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.