NFC West · 1–2
Arizona Cardinals
@ New York Giants · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTFavoured by 2.5
- Line
- 23.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 22.6
- our projection
- Difference
- −0.9
- −3.8% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- +1, from 22.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −2.5 | +2.5 | +5 | 1 of 3 | +1.5 | −4 |
| Moneyline | 58% | 43% | −15.7 | 1 of 3 | 51% | +7.8 |
| Game Total | 44.5 | 47.7 | +3.2 | 1 of 3 | 43.5 | +1 |
| Team Total | 23.5 | 22.6 | −0.9 | 2 of 3 | 22.5 | +1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT22.5opened
- Oct 3, 1:00 PM PT23.5+1
Opened 22.5, now 23.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.55moderate
- Moneyline0.39mild
- Game Total0.38mild
- NYG team total-0.12weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 23.5Under 23.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 23.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 22.6
- −0.9 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 26
- regular season
- Season average
- 21
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 26 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 20 | 40%2/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 19.5 | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Season | 26 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 20 | 24%4/17 | 47%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 21
- points
- Median team total
- 26
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ LAC | 26 | 19.5 | +6.5 |
| Week 2 | vs SEA | 7 | 18.5 | −11.5 |
| Week 3 | @ SF | 30 | 20.5 | +9.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Arizona Cardinals are 1-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 23.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift Arizona Cardinals's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 23.5
- Season average
- 21
- vs the line
- −2.5
- Market rank
- 18thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- NYG allow 18.3
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 44.5
- combined
- ARI spread
- −2.5
- favoured
- ARI implied total
- 23.5
- their half
- NYG implied total
- 21
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- favoured on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 65.3
- ARI, from pace
- Drives
- 10.3
- 22nd in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.03
- needs 2.3 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 30.7
- 16th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What New York Giants allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
New York Giants defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 18.3 | 9th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.96 | 10th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 73% | 25th |
| Drives faced / game | 9.3 | 4th |
| Seconds per play | 29.8 | 22nd |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 13.5
- Allowed on the road
- 28
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- −14.5 a game
New York Giants host ARI, so the home figure is the one that applies — 14.5 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ SF | 30 | 36 | −6 | 66 | 20.5 |
| Week 2 | vs SEA | 7 | 31 | −24 | 38 | 18.5 |
| Week 1 | @ LAC | 26 | 14 | +12 | 40 | 19.5 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 23.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 23.5 | −108 | −110 |
| BetOnline | 21.5 | −130 | +100 |
| FanDuel | 23.5 | −104 | −122 |
| Caesars | 23.5 | −107 | −124 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 9:58 AM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 23.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.