AFC East · 3–0
Buffalo Bills
vs New England Patriots · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTFavoured by 6.5
- Line
- 27.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 25.2
- our projection
- Difference
- −2.3
- −8.4% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- −1, from 28.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −6.5 | −1.3 | +5.2 | 2 of 3 | −5.5 | −1 |
| Moneyline | 75% | 54% | −21.1 | 3 of 3 | 75% | 0 |
| Team Total | 27.5 | 25.2 | −2.3 | 2 of 3 | 28.5 | −1 |
| Game Total | 48.5 | 49.1 | +0.6 | 2 of 3 | 49.5 | −1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT28.5opened
- Sep 29, 10:02 AM PT27.5−1
Opened 28.5, now 27.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.81strong
- Moneyline0.80strong
- Spread0.62strong
- NE team total0.29mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 27.5Under 27.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 27.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 25.2
- −2.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 36
- regular season
- Season average
- 33.7
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 36 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 35 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 30.5 | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 36 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 30 | 59%10/17 | 53%9/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 33.7
- points
- Median team total
- 36
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ HOU | 36 | 23 | +13 |
| Week 2 | vs DET | 41 | 30 | +11 |
| Week 3 | vs LAC | 24 | 28.8 | −4.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Buffalo Bills are 3-0 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 27.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Buffalo Bills's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 27.5
- Season average
- 33.7
- vs the line
- +6.2
- Market rank
- 1stin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- NE allow 17
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 48.5
- combined
- BUF spread
- −6.5
- favoured
- BUF implied total
- 27.5
- their half
- NE implied total
- 21
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 60
- BUF, from pace
- Drives
- 10.7
- 17th in the league
- Points per drive
- 3.16
- needs 2.6 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 5.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 29.6
- 22nd slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What New England Patriots allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
New England Patriots defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 17 | 6th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.59 | 5th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 67% | 18th |
| Drives faced / game | 10.7 | 17th |
| Seconds per play | 32 | 6th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 3
- Allowed on the road
- 24
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- +21 a game
New England Patriots travel to BUF, so the road figure is the one that applies — 21 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs LAC | 24 | 16 | +8 | 40 | 28.75 |
| Week 2 | vs DET | 41 | 31 | +10 | 72 | 30 |
| Week 1 | @ HOU | 36 | 31 | +5 | 67 | 23 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 27.5 — over/under odds across the market. 1 book is on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 27.5 | −122 | −104 |
| Caesars | 28.5 | −108 | −124 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Sep 29, 10:02 AM PT. 1 of 2 books below are on a different number than 27.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.