NFC North · 2–1
Chicago Bears
vs New York Jets · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTFavoured by 3.5
- Line
- 23.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 30.2
- our projection
- Difference
- +6.7
- +28.5% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 23.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −3.5 | −10.8 | −7.3 | 2 of 3 | −3 | −0.5 |
| Team Total | 23.5 | 30.2 | +6.7 | 2 of 3 | 23.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 43 | 49.5 | +6.5 | 1 of 3 | 43.5 | −0.5 |
| Moneyline | 66% | 79% | +13.3 | 2 of 3 | 62% | +4 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT23.5opened
- Oct 2, 10:02 AM PT23.5held
Opened 23.5, now 23.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.82strong
- Spread0.49moderate
- Moneyline0.43mild
- NYJ team total0.41mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 23.5Under 23.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 23.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 30.2
- +6.7 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 27
- regular season
- Season average
- 29.7
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 27 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 27 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 25.5 | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Season | 27 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 24 | 65%11/17 | 71%12/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 29.7
- points
- Median team total
- 27
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ CAR | 59 | 25.3 | +33.8 |
| Week 2 | vs MIN | 3 | 25.5 | −22.5 |
| Week 3 | vs PHI | 27 | 19.5 | +7.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Chicago Bears are 2-1 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 23.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Chicago Bears's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 23.5
- Season average
- 29.7
- vs the line
- +6.2
- Market rank
- 6thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- NYJ allow 20.3
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 43
- combined
- CHI spread
- −3.5
- favoured
- CHI implied total
- 23.25
- their half
- NYJ implied total
- 19.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 68.7
- CHI, from pace
- Drives
- 11
- 14th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.7
- needs 2.1 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 5.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 31.7
- 8th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What New York Jets allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
New York Jets defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 20.3 | 11th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.97 | 12th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 70% | 21st |
| Drives faced / game | 10.3 | 13th |
| Seconds per play | 29.8 | 21st |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 20
- Allowed on the road
- 20.5
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- +0.5 a game
New York Jets travel to CHI, so the road figure is the one that applies — 0.5 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs PHI | 27 | 7 | +20 | 34 | 19.5 |
| Week 2 | vs MIN | 3 | 9 | −6 | 12 | 25.5 |
| Week 1 | @ CAR | 59 | 37 | +22 | 96 | 25.25 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 23.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 23.5 | −110 | −108 |
| BetOnline | 23.5 | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel | 23.5 | −108 | −118 |
| Caesars | 23.5 | −112 | −120 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 2, 10:02 AM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.