AFC North · 3–1
Cleveland Browns
vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Thu, Oct 1 · 5:15 PM PTUnderdog by 2.5
- Line
- 17.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 17.2
- our projection
- Difference
- −0.3
- −1.7% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- −1, from 18.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L4 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | +3.2 | +0.7 | 3 of 4 | +2.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 38.5 | 37.6 | −0.9 | 4 of 4 | 37.5 | +1 |
| Moneyline | 42% | 41% | −1.8 | 3 of 4 | 46% | −3.1 |
| Team Total | 17.5 | 17.2 | −0.3 | 3 of 4 | 18.5 | −1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 5:17 AM PT18.5opened
- at close17.5−1
Opened 18.5, now 17.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.76strong
- Moneyline0.43mild
- PIT team total-0.37mild
- Game Total0.36mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 4
Cleared 17.5Under 17.5
- The line
- 17.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 17.2
- −0.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 4
- 75% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 4
- each week's own close
- Median
- 22
- regular season
- Season average
- 20.3
- 4 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 23 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 21 | 80%4/5 | 80%4/5 |
| Last 10 | 20 | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 22 | 75%3/4 | 75%3/4 |
| Last Season | 16 | 35%6/17 | 50%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 4
- Average
- 20.3
- points
- Median team total
- 22
- points
- Cleared
- 3 of 4
- 75%
- vs the full 4
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ JAX | 10 | 16 | −6 |
| Week 2 | @ TB | 23 | 16.5 | +6.5 |
| Week 3 | vs CAR | 21 | 19.5 | +1.5 |
| Week 4 | vs PIT | 27 | 18 | +9 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Cleveland Browns are 3-1 on the season and have hit the team total in 3 of 4 graded games (75%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 17.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift Cleveland Browns's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 17.5
- Season average
- 20.3
- vs the line
- +2.8
- Market rank
- 21stin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- PIT allow 21.8
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 38.5
- combined
- CLE spread
- +2.5
- underdog
- CLE implied total
- 18
- their half
- PIT implied total
- 20.5
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- underdog at home
- Wind
- 11 mph
- 77°F
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 56
- CLE, from pace
- Drives
- 11.8
- 4th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.72
- needs 1.5 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.2
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 30.1
- 20th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Pittsburgh Steelers allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Pittsburgh Steelers defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 21.8 | 14th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.93 | 9th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 80% | 30th |
| Drives faced / game | 11.2 | 22nd |
| Seconds per play | 31.2 | 9th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 20
- Allowed on the road
- 23.5
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- +3.5 a game
Pittsburgh Steelers travel to CLE, so the road figure is the one that applies — 3.5 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | vs PIT | 27 | 24 | +3 | 51 | 18 |
| Week 3 | vs CAR | 21 | 18 | +3 | 39 | 19.5 |
| Week 2 | @ TB | 23 | 19 | +4 | 42 | 16.5 |
| Week 1 | @ JAX | 10 | 34 | −24 | 44 | 16 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 17.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 17.5 | −105 | −112 |
| BetOnline | 17.5 | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | −113 | −113 |
| Caesars | 17.5 | −106 | −127 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 1, 5:13 PM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 5:17 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.