NFC East · 1–2
Dallas Cowboys
@ Houston Texans · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 3
- Line
- 22.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 21.1
- our projection
- Difference
- −1.4
- −6.2% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- −1, from 23.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 | +11.2 | +8.2 | 1 of 3 | +3 | 0 |
| Moneyline | 43% | 20% | −22.2 | 1 of 3 | 46% | −2.9 |
| Game Total | 48.5 | 53.4 | +4.9 | 2 of 3 | 47.5 | +1 |
| Team Total | 22.5 | 21.1 | −1.4 | 2 of 3 | 23.5 | −1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT23.5opened
- Oct 3, 10:00 AM PT22.5−1
Opened 23.5, now 22.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.78strong
- Game Total0.70strong
- Moneyline0.62strong
- HOU team total-0.13weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 22.5Under 22.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 22.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 21.1
- −1.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 31
- regular season
- Season average
- 29.3
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 31 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 30 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 28 | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 31 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 27 | 71%12/17 | 69%11/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 29.3
- points
- Median team total
- 31
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ NYG | 20 | 25.3 | −5.3 |
| Week 2 | vs WAS | 37 | 27.5 | +9.5 |
| Week 3 | vs BAL | 31 | 25.3 | +5.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Dallas Cowboys are 1-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 22.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift Dallas Cowboys's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 22.5
- Season average
- 29.3
- vs the line
- +6.8
- Market rank
- 8thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- HOU allow 25
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 48.5
- combined
- DAL spread
- +3
- underdog
- DAL implied total
- 22.75
- their half
- HOU implied total
- 25.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 59.3
- DAL, from pace
- Drives
- 8.7
- 32nd in the league
- Points per drive
- 3.38
- needs 2.6 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 4.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 29
- 26th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Houston Texans allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Houston Texans defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 25 | 19th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.14 | 17th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 58% | 10th |
| Drives faced / game | 11.7 | 27th |
| Seconds per play | 30.7 | 15th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 28
- Allowed on the road
- 19
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- +9 a game
Houston Texans host DAL, so the home figure is the one that applies — 9 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs BAL | 31 | 34 | −3 | 65 | 25.25 |
| Week 2 | vs WAS | 37 | 20 | +17 | 57 | 27.5 |
| Week 1 | @ NYG | 20 | 28 | −8 | 48 | 25.25 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 22.5 — over/under odds across the market. 2 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 23.5 | −102 | −118 |
| BetOnline | 23.5 | +100 | −130 |
| FanDuel | 22.5 | −125 | −102 |
| Caesars | 22.5 | −122 | −109 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 10:00 AM PT. 2 of 4 books below are on a different number than 22.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.