AFC West · 2–1
Denver Broncos
@ San Francisco 49ers · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:25 PM PTUnderdog by 2.5
- Line
- 22.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 20.6
- our projection
- Difference
- −1.9
- −8.4% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- +1, from 21.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | +3.5 | +1 | 2 of 3 | +3 | −0.5 |
| Team Total | 22.5 | 20.6 | −1.9 | 1 of 3 | 21.5 | +1 |
| Game Total | 48 | 44.6 | −3.4 | 1 of 3 | 46 | +2 |
| Moneyline | 44% | 40% | −4.5 | 2 of 3 | 44% | +0.9 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT21.5opened
- Oct 1, 7:24 PM PT22.5+1
Opened 21.5, now 22.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.80strong
- Spread0.49moderate
- SF team total0.35mild
- Moneyline0.22weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 22.5Under 22.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 22.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 20.6
- −1.9 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 20
- regular season
- Season average
- 20
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 20 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 20 | 20%1/5 | 20%1/5 |
| Last 10 | 21 | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Season | 20 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last Season | 21 | 41%7/17 | 47%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 20
- points
- Median team total
- 20
- points
- Cleared
- 1 of 3
- 33% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ KC | 10 | 20 | −10 |
| Week 2 | vs JAX | 20 | 24 | −4 |
| Week 3 | vs LA | 30 | 22.5 | +7.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Denver Broncos are 2-1 on the season and have hit the team total in 1 of 3 graded games (33%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 22.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift Denver Broncos's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 22.5
- Season average
- 20
- vs the line
- −2.5
- Market rank
- 23rdin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- SF allow 16.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 48
- combined
- DEN spread
- +2.5
- underdog
- DEN implied total
- 22.75
- their half
- SF implied total
- 25.25
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 54.7
- DEN, from pace
- Drives
- 10.3
- 23rd in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.94
- needs 2.2 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 29.6
- 23rd slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What San Francisco 49ers allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
San Francisco 49ers defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 16.7 | 5th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.79 | 8th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 46% | 4th |
| Drives faced / game | 9.3 | 5th |
| Seconds per play | 30.1 | 17th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 21.5
- Allowed on the road
- 7
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- +14.5 a game
San Francisco 49ers host DEN, so the home figure is the one that applies — 14.5 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs LA | 30 | 26 | +4 | 56 | 22.5 |
| Week 2 | vs JAX | 20 | 13 | +7 | 33 | 24 |
| Week 1 | @ KC | 10 | 31 | −21 | 41 | 20 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 22.5 — over/under odds across the market. 1 book is on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 21.5 | −150 | +117 |
| FanDuel | 23.5 | +100 | −128 |
| Caesars | 22.5 | −117 | −115 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 1, 7:24 PM PT. 2 of 3 books below are on a different number than 22.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.