NFC North · 2–1
Detroit Lions
@ Carolina Panthers · Sun, Oct 4 · 5:20 PM PTFavoured by 3.5
- Line
- 27.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 28.9
- our projection
- Difference
- +1.4
- +5.1% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 27.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −3.5 | −3.2 | +0.3 | 1 of 3 | −2.5 | −1 |
| Game Total | 51 | 54.6 | +3.6 | 3 of 3 | 49.5 | +1.5 |
| Moneyline | 66% | 59% | −6.7 | 2 of 3 | 61% | +5.3 |
| Team Total | 27.5 | 28.9 | +1.4 | 3 of 3 | 27.5 | 0 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 5:20 PM PT27.5opened
- Sep 30, 5:23 PM PT27.5held
Opened 27.5, now 27.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.84strong
- Spread0.78strong
- Moneyline0.64strong
- CAR team total0.14weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 27.5Under 27.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 27.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 28.9
- +1.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 3
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 31
- regular season
- Season average
- 31
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 31 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 31 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 31 | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 31 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last Season | 24 | 47%8/17 | 47%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 31
- points
- Median team total
- 31
- points
- Cleared
- 3 of 3
- 100% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs NO | 31 | 28.3 | +2.8 |
| Week 2 | @ BUF | 31 | 24.5 | +6.5 |
| Week 3 | vs NYJ | 31 | 28.3 | +2.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Detroit Lions are 2-1 on the season and have hit the team total in 3 of 3 graded games (100%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 27.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Detroit Lions's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 27.5
- Season average
- 31
- vs the line
- +3.5
- Market rank
- 3rdin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- CAR allow 27.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 51
- combined
- DET spread
- −3.5
- favoured
- DET implied total
- 27.25
- their half
- CAR implied total
- 23.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 65.7
- DET, from pace
- Drives
- 10.7
- 18th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.91
- needs 2.6 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 5
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 29.5
- 24th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Carolina Panthers allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Carolina Panthers defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 27.7 | 27th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.13 | 17th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 91% | 32nd |
| Drives faced / game | 13 | 32nd |
| Seconds per play | 28.2 | 28th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 59
- Allowed on the road
- 12
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- +47 a game
Carolina Panthers host DET, so the home figure is the one that applies — 47 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs NYJ | 31 | 24 | +7 | 55 | 28.25 |
| Week 2 | @ BUF | 31 | 41 | −10 | 72 | 24.5 |
| Week 1 | vs NO | 31 | 30 | +1 | 61 | 28.25 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 27.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 27.5 | −110 | −108 |
| BetOnline | 27.5 | −140 | +109 |
| FanDuel | 27.5 | −111 | −115 |
| Caesars | 27.5 | −113 | −118 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Sep 30, 5:23 PM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 5:20 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.