Question 1
How is the 21.5 team total built from the game total and spread?
Houston
Texans
AFC South · 0–0 · vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1 · Dome
Team Total
Final21.5The lineO −112 · U −118
—Season averagegames played
—Season hit rateno sample
Points / g—
Drives / g—
Red zone TD—
PROE—
BUF allows—
All team markets
Every featured team market this week. The five squares are the last five games against each game's own closing line. Select one to re-anchor the research.
Game total44.5closing line
HOU spread+1.5closing line
HOU implied total21.5underdog
BUF implied total23favored
Projected scriptCloseprojected
ConditionsDomeno weather factor
Full game research
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The readAuto-generated from the data
Houston Texans are 0-0 on the season and have hit the team total in 0 of 0 graded games (—), measured against each game's own closing line.
Line movement21.5 → 21.5since open · flat
Season average—vs the line
Market rank—in scoring offense
Key opponent input—vs the league
What would have to be true
Possession count holds
This game projects to about — possessions per side (Houston Texans average — drives per game, BUF —). Materially fewer possessions would pressure the team total.
Recent form carries over
Houston Texans's recent output (— over the last five) is assumed to hold near its season average (—).
Defense performs to its season rate
BUF allow — points per game; the team total assumes that level of resistance shows up.
Recent output relative to line 21.5
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
No games played yet this season.
Consensus line21.5O −112 · U −118
Above the line——
vs closing lines—no closing lines
Season average—games played
Distribution by time window
| Window | GP | Median | Above the line % · vs current line | Above the line % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 0 | — | —— | —— |
| Last 5 | 0 | — | —— | —— |
| Last 10 | 0 | — | —— | —— |
| Season | 0 | — | —— | —— |
| Last Season | 17 | 20 | 8/17 47% | 9/17 53% |
Similar games vs Buffalo Bills
AI-matchedPast games most like the BUF matchup — matched on the opponent's defensive rank, home/away and pace.
Houston Texans averaged 24.2 points in these 6 similar spots.
Custom splits
InteractiveNo games played yet this season, so there is nothing to split.
Buffalo Bills defense by market
What HOU produces against what Buffalo Bills allows — blended into one adjusted line, then the full inputs beneath it.
Full inputs · BUF allows per game · 2026 regular season · games before Week 1 · ranks leaguewide
| BUF allows | Per game | Rank | Feeds which market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | — | — | Team total points, TDs, 1H points |
| Red-zone TD rate | — | — | Team total TDs vs field goals |
| Sacks taken | — | — | Sacks the offense would face |
| Giveaways | — | — | Offense's turnover risk |
| 1st-half points | — | — | 1H team total |
Team prop odds
Team Total 21.5 — over/under odds across the market. 2 books are on the consensus number.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Sep 13, 12:53 PM EDT. 2 of 4 books below are on a different number than 21.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 10, 7:45 AM EDT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.
Take this research further
Auto-generated from the dataEach question opens in the Research Assistant with this team's market context pre-loaded.
Question 2
Does HOU's team total hold up at home versus on the road?
Question 3
How does Buffalo Bills's defense change the read on HOU's scoring markets?
