AFC South · 0–3
Houston Texans
vs Dallas Cowboys · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTFavoured by 3
- Line
- 25.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 32.3
- our projection
- Difference
- +6.8
- +26.7% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- +1, from 24.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −3 | −11.2 | −8.2 | 0 of 3 | −3 | 0 |
| Team Total | 25.5 | 32.3 | +6.8 | 1 of 3 | 24.5 | +1 |
| Moneyline | 62% | 80% | +18.1 | 0 of 3 | 58% | +3.2 |
| Game Total | 48.5 | 53.4 | +4.9 | 1 of 3 | 47.5 | +1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT24.5opened
- Oct 3, 10:00 AM PT25.5+1
Opened 24.5, now 25.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.84strong
- Spread0.75strong
- Moneyline0.57moderate
- DAL team total0.21weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 25.5Under 25.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 25.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 32.3
- +6.8 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 17
- regular season
- Season average
- 18
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 17 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 20 | 40%2/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 21.5 | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 17 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last Season | 20 | 35%6/17 | 53%9/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 18
- points
- Median team total
- 17
- points
- Cleared
- 1 of 3
- 33% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs BUF | 31 | 21.5 | +9.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CIN | 6 | 24.3 | −18.3 |
| Week 3 | @ IND | 17 | 21.5 | −4.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Houston Texans are 0-3 on the season and have hit the team total in 1 of 3 graded games (33%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 25.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Houston Texans's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 25.5
- Season average
- 18
- vs the line
- −7.5
- Market rank
- 26thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- DAL allow 27.3
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 48.5
- combined
- HOU spread
- −3
- favoured
- HOU implied total
- 25.75
- their half
- DAL implied total
- 22.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 66.7
- HOU, from pace
- Drives
- 11.3
- 9th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.59
- needs 2.3 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 4
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 27.4
- 29th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Dallas Cowboys allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Dallas Cowboys defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 27.3 | 25th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.93 | 30th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 67% | 18th |
| Drives faced / game | 9.3 | 1st |
| Seconds per play | 32.1 | 5th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 27
- Allowed on the road
- 28
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- +1 a game
Dallas Cowboys travel to HOU, so the road figure is the one that applies — 1 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ IND | 17 | 19 | −2 | 36 | 21.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CIN | 6 | 20 | −14 | 26 | 24.25 |
| Week 1 | vs BUF | 31 | 36 | −5 | 67 | 21.5 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 25.5 — over/under odds across the market. 2 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 26.5 | −105 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 24.5 | −120 | −110 |
| FanDuel | 25.5 | −118 | −108 |
| Caesars | 25.5 | −118 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 10:00 AM PT. 2 of 4 books below are on a different number than 25.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.