AFC South · 1–2
Indianapolis Colts
@ Washington Commanders · Sun, Oct 4 · 6:30 AM PTFavoured by 4
- Line
- 26.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 31.1
- our projection
- Difference
- +4.6
- +17.4% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- +1, from 25.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −4 | −5.8 | −1.8 | 0 of 3 | −4.5 | +0.5 |
| Game Total | 47.5 | 56.4 | +8.9 | 2 of 3 | 46.5 | +1 |
| Team Total | 26.5 | 31.1 | +4.6 | 1 of 3 | 25.5 | +1 |
| Moneyline | 67% | 67% | −0.7 | 1 of 3 | 64% | +3.6 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 6:33 PM PT25.5opened
- Oct 2, 12:31 PM PT26.5+1
Opened 25.5, now 26.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.74strong
- Moneyline0.71strong
- Game Total0.49moderate
- WAS team total-0.25mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 26.5Under 26.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 26.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 31.1
- +4.6 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 23
- regular season
- Season average
- 24
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 23 | 33%1/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 23 | 40%2/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 19.5 | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Season | 23 | 33%1/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 29 | 59%10/17 | 65%11/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 24
- points
- Median team total
- 23
- points
- Cleared
- 1 of 3
- 33% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 23 | 22.8 | +0.3 |
| Week 2 | @ KC | 30 | 20.3 | +9.8 |
| Week 3 | vs HOU | 19 | 20 | −1 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Indianapolis Colts are 1-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 26.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Indianapolis Colts's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 26.5
- Season average
- 24
- vs the line
- −2.5
- Market rank
- 15thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- WAS allow 30.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- IND spread
- −4
- favoured
- IND implied total
- 25.75
- their half
- WAS implied total
- 21.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 62.3
- IND, from pace
- Drives
- 10.7
- 19th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.25
- needs 2.5 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 32.2
- 4th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Washington Commanders allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Washington Commanders defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 30.7 | 31st |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.79 | 29th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 79% | 27th |
| Drives faced / game | 11 | 21st |
| Seconds per play | 31.3 | 7th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 31
- Allowed on the road
- 30.5
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- +0.5 a game
Washington Commanders host IND, so the home figure is the one that applies — 0.5 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs HOU | 19 | 17 | +2 | 36 | 20 |
| Week 2 | @ KC | 30 | 33 | −3 | 63 | 20.25 |
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 23 | 41 | −18 | 64 | 22.75 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 26.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 26.5 | −112 | −105 |
| BetOnline | 24.5 | −140 | +109 |
| FanDuel | 26.5 | −111 | −115 |
| Caesars | 26.5 | −113 | −118 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 2, 12:31 PM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 26.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 6:33 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.