AFC South · 2–1
Jacksonville Jaguars
@ Cincinnati Bengals · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 2.5
- Line
- 24.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 29.6
- our projection
- Difference
- +5.1
- +20.8% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 24.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | −7.7 | −10.2 | 2 of 3 | +2.5 | 0 |
| Moneyline | 45% | 72% | +26.6 | 2 of 3 | 47% | −1.5 |
| Team Total | 24.5 | 29.6 | +5.1 | 2 of 3 | 24.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 51.5 | 51.4 | −0.1 | 0 of 3 | 50.5 | +1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT24.5opened
- Oct 3, 1:00 PM PT24.5held
Opened 24.5, now 24.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.80strong
- Game Total0.61strong
- Moneyline0.60strong
- CIN team total-0.27mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 24.5Under 24.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 24.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 29.6
- +5.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 34
- regular season
- Season average
- 27.3
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 34 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 34 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 34 | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Season | 34 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 27 | 77%13/17 | 77%13/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 27.3
- points
- Median team total
- 34
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs CLE | 34 | 24.5 | +9.5 |
| Week 2 | @ DEN | 13 | 21.5 | −8.5 |
| Week 3 | vs NE | 35 | 24.8 | +10.3 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 24.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift Jacksonville Jaguars's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 24.5
- Season average
- 27.3
- vs the line
- +2.8
- Market rank
- 10thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- CIN allow 21
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 51.5
- combined
- JAX spread
- +2.5
- underdog
- JAX implied total
- 24.5
- their half
- CIN implied total
- 27
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 55.7
- JAX, from pace
- Drives
- 9.3
- 28th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.93
- needs 2.6 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 34.1
- 1st slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Cincinnati Bengals allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Cincinnati Bengals defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 21 | 12th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.97 | 13th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 39% | 3rd |
| Drives faced / game | 10.7 | 15th |
| Seconds per play | 29 | 26th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 27
- Allowed on the road
- 18
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- +9 a game
Cincinnati Bengals host JAX, so the home figure is the one that applies — 9 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs NE | 35 | 6 | +29 | 41 | 24.75 |
| Week 2 | @ DEN | 13 | 20 | −7 | 33 | 21.5 |
| Week 1 | vs CLE | 34 | 10 | +24 | 44 | 24.5 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 24.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 24.5 | −108 | −110 |
| BetOnline | 24.5 | −105 | −125 |
| FanDuel | 24.5 | −108 | −118 |
| Caesars | 24.5 | −113 | −118 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 10:59 AM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.