AFC West · 3–0
Kansas City Chiefs
@ Las Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:25 PM PTFavoured by 4.5
- Line
- 26.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 22.4
- our projection
- Difference
- −4.1
- −15.5% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 26.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −4.5 | −6.7 | −2.2 | 2 of 3 | −5.5 | +1 |
| Game Total | 47.5 | 38 | −9.5 | 1 of 3 | 45.5 | +2 |
| Team Total | 26.5 | 22.4 | −4.1 | 2 of 3 | 26.5 | 0 |
| Moneyline | 69% | 69% | −0.2 | 3 of 3 | 70% | −0.5 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:03 PM PT26.5opened
- Oct 3, 7:29 AM PT26.5held
Opened 26.5, now 26.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.73strong
- Moneyline0.71strong
- Game Total0.65strong
- LV team total-0.10weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 26.5Under 26.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 26.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 22.4
- −4.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 31
- regular season
- Season average
- 29.3
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 31 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 24 | 40%2/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 18 | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Season | 31 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 21 | 35%6/17 | 29%5/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 29.3
- points
- Median team total
- 31
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 31 | 22.5 | +8.5 |
| Week 2 | vs IND | 33 | 26.3 | +6.8 |
| Week 3 | @ MIA | 24 | 27.8 | −3.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 26.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Kansas City Chiefs's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 26.5
- Season average
- 29.3
- vs the line
- +2.8
- Market rank
- 9thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- LV allow 18
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- KC spread
- −4.5
- favoured
- KC implied total
- 26
- their half
- LV implied total
- 21.5
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured on the road
- Wind
- Dome
- no weather factor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 63.7
- KC, from pace
- Drives
- 10.7
- 20th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.75
- needs 2.5 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 5.3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 31.3
- 11th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Las Vegas Raiders allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Las Vegas Raiders defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 18 | 8th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.54 | 3rd |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 70% | 22nd |
| Drives faced / game | 11.7 | 29th |
| Seconds per play | 30.6 | 16th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 13
- Allowed on the road
- 20.5
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- −7.5 a game
Las Vegas Raiders host KC, so the home figure is the one that applies — 7.5 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ MIA | 24 | 10 | +14 | 34 | 27.75 |
| Week 2 | vs IND | 33 | 30 | +3 | 63 | 26.25 |
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 31 | 10 | +21 | 41 | 22.5 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 26.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 26.5 | −120 | +100 |
| BetOnline | 26.5 | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 26.5 | −122 | −104 |
| Caesars | 26.5 | −120 | −112 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 2, 7:27 PM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:03 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.