AFC West · 3–0
Las Vegas Raiders
vs Kansas City Chiefs · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:25 PM PTUnderdog by 4.5
- Line
- 21.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 15.7
- our projection
- Difference
- −5.8
- −27% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 21.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 | +6.7 | +2.2 | 3 of 3 | +5.5 | −1 |
| Team Total | 21.5 | 15.7 | −5.8 | 3 of 3 | 21.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 47.5 | 38 | −9.5 | 1 of 3 | 45.5 | +2 |
| Moneyline | 35% | 31% | −4.1 | 3 of 3 | 34% | +0.7 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:03 PM PT21.5opened
- Oct 3, 7:29 AM PT21.5held
Opened 21.5, now 21.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.77strong
- Game Total0.63strong
- Moneyline0.50moderate
- KC team total-0.18weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 21.5Under 21.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 21.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 15.7
- −5.8 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 3
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 27
- regular season
- Season average
- 29.3
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 27 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 26 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 15.5 | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Season | 27 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last Season | 14 | 18%3/17 | 24%4/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 29.3
- points
- Median team total
- 27
- points
- Cleared
- 3 of 3
- 100% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs MIA | 27 | 21.8 | +5.3 |
| Week 2 | @ LAC | 26 | 18.5 | +7.5 |
| Week 3 | @ NO | 35 | 20 | +15 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 on the season and have hit the team total in 3 of 3 graded games (100%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 21.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift Las Vegas Raiders's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 21.5
- Season average
- 29.3
- vs the line
- +7.8
- Market rank
- 7thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- KC allow 16.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- LV spread
- +4.5
- underdog
- LV implied total
- 21.5
- their half
- KC implied total
- 26
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog at home
- Wind
- Dome
- no weather factor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 61.3
- LV, from pace
- Drives
- 12
- 3rd in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.44
- needs 1.8 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 5.3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 30.4
- 19th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Kansas City Chiefs allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Kansas City Chiefs defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 16.7 | 5th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.61 | 6th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 63% | 13th |
| Drives faced / game | 10.3 | 12th |
| Seconds per play | 32.5 | 4th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 20
- Allowed on the road
- 10
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- −10 a game
Kansas City Chiefs travel to LV, so the road figure is the one that applies — 10 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ NO | 35 | 27 | +8 | 62 | 20 |
| Week 2 | @ LAC | 26 | 14 | +12 | 40 | 18.5 |
| Week 1 | vs MIA | 27 | 13 | +14 | 40 | 21.75 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 21.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 21.5 | −105 | −112 |
| BetOnline | 21.5 | −105 | −125 |
| FanDuel | 21.5 | −104 | −122 |
| Caesars | 21.5 | −104 | −129 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 2, 1:25 AM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:03 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.