AFC West · 0–3
Los Angeles Chargers
@ Seattle Seahawks · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:25 PM PTUnderdog by 7
- Line
- 17.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 14.9
- our projection
- Difference
- −2.6
- −14.9% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 17.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7 | +10.1 | +3.1 | 0 of 3 | +6.5 | +0.5 |
| Team Total | 17.5 | 14.9 | −2.6 | 0 of 3 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 42.5 | 40 | −2.5 | 0 of 3 | 43.5 | −1 |
| Moneyline | 27% | 23% | −4 | 0 of 3 | 28% | −1.7 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:04 PM PT17.5opened
- Oct 1, 7:24 PM PT17.5held
Opened 17.5, now 17.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.86strong
- Moneyline0.74strong
- Game Total0.64strong
- SEA team total-0.39mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 17.5Under 17.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 17.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 14.9
- −2.6 on the line
- Above the line
- 0 of 3
- 0% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 14
- regular season
- Season average
- 14.7
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 14 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last 5 | 14 | 0%0/5 | 0%0/5 |
| Last 10 | 16 | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Season | 14 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last Season | 23 | 71%12/17 | 41%7/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 14.7
- points
- Median team total
- 14
- points
- Cleared
- 0 of 3
- 0% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs ARI | 14 | 28 | −14 |
| Week 2 | vs LV | 14 | 25 | −11 |
| Week 3 | @ BUF | 16 | 21.8 | −5.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Los Angeles Chargers are 0-3 on the season and have hit the team total in 0 of 3 graded games (0%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 17.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift Los Angeles Chargers's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 17.5
- Season average
- 14.7
- vs the line
- −2.8
- Market rank
- 29thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- SEA allow 16.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 42.5
- combined
- LAC spread
- +7
- underdog
- LAC implied total
- 17.75
- their half
- SEA implied total
- 24.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 59
- LAC, from pace
- Drives
- 11.3
- 10th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.29
- needs 1.5 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 30.9
- 14th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Seattle Seahawks allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Seattle Seahawks defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 16.7 | 4th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.56 | 4th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 71% | 25th |
| Drives faced / game | 10.7 | 20th |
| Seconds per play | 29.9 | 20th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 10
- Allowed on the road
- 20
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- −10 a game
Seattle Seahawks host LAC, so the home figure is the one that applies — 10 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ BUF | 16 | 24 | −8 | 40 | 21.75 |
| Week 2 | vs LV | 14 | 26 | −12 | 40 | 25 |
| Week 1 | vs ARI | 14 | 26 | −12 | 40 | 28 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 17.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 16.5 | −125 | +105 |
| BetOnline | 17.5 | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | +106 | −136 |
| Caesars | 17.5 | +101 | −136 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 1, 7:24 PM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 17.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:04 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.