AFC East · 0–3
Miami Dolphins
@ Minnesota Vikings · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:05 PM PTUnderdog by 10.5
- Line
- 13.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 15.4
- our projection
- Difference
- +1.9
- +14.1% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 13.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 | +6.7 | −3.8 | 0 of 3 | +10.5 | 0 |
| Team Total | 13.5 | 15.4 | +1.9 | 0 of 3 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Moneyline | 18% | 31% | +12.9 | 0 of 3 | 19% | −0.8 |
| Game Total | 39 | 37.5 | −1.5 | 2 of 3 | 42.5 | −3.5 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT13.5opened
- Oct 1, 1:04 PM PT13.5held
Opened 13.5, now 13.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.86strong
- Moneyline0.58moderate
- MIN team total-0.51moderate
- Game Total0.43mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 13.5Under 13.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 13.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 15.4
- +1.9 on the line
- Above the line
- 0 of 3
- 0% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 13
- regular season
- Season average
- 12
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 13 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last 5 | 13 | 20%1/5 | 20%1/5 |
| Last 10 | 15.5 | 60%6/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Season | 13 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last Season | 21 | 77%13/17 | 53%9/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 12
- points
- Median team total
- 13
- points
- Cleared
- 0 of 3
- 0% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ LV | 13 | 18.8 | −5.8 |
| Week 2 | @ SF | 13 | 16 | −3 |
| Week 3 | vs KC | 10 | 17.8 | −7.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Miami Dolphins are 0-3 on the season and have hit the team total in 0 of 3 graded games (0%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 13.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift Miami Dolphins's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 13.5
- Season average
- 12
- vs the line
- −1.5
- Market rank
- 32ndin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- MIN allow 13.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 39
- combined
- MIA spread
- +10.5
- underdog
- MIA implied total
- 14.25
- their half
- MIN implied total
- 24.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- Dome
- no weather factor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 57.7
- MIA, from pace
- Drives
- 9.3
- 29th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.29
- needs 1.5 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 2.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 30.4
- 18th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Minnesota Vikings allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Minnesota Vikings defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 13.7 | 2nd |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.11 | 1st |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 25% | 2nd |
| Drives faced / game | 12.3 | 31st |
| Seconds per play | 26.8 | 31st |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 22
- Allowed on the road
- 9.5
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- +12.5 a game
Minnesota Vikings host MIA, so the home figure is the one that applies — 12.5 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs KC | 10 | 24 | −14 | 34 | 17.75 |
| Week 2 | @ SF | 13 | 35 | −22 | 48 | 16 |
| Week 1 | @ LV | 13 | 27 | −14 | 40 | 18.75 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 13.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 13.5 | −105 | −112 |
| BetOnline | 13.5 | −105 | −125 |
| FanDuel | 13.5 | +102 | −130 |
| Caesars | 14.5 | +123 | −164 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 1, 1:04 PM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 13.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.