NFC North · 3–0
Minnesota Vikings
vs Miami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:05 PM PTFavoured by 10
- Line
- 24.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 22.1
- our projection
- Difference
- −2.4
- −9.8% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 24.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −10 | −6.7 | +3.3 | 1 of 3 | −10.5 | +0.5 |
| Moneyline | 86% | 69% | −17 | 3 of 3 | 85% | +0.5 |
| Team Total | 24.5 | 22.1 | −2.4 | 1 of 3 | 24.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 38.5 | 37.5 | −1 | 2 of 3 | 42.5 | −4 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT24.5opened
- Oct 2, 7:06 PM PT24.5held
Opened 24.5, now 24.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.82strong
- Game Total0.72strong
- Moneyline0.58moderate
- MIA team total-0.19weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 24.5Under 24.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 24.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 22.1
- −2.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 23
- regular season
- Season average
- 23.7
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 23 | 33%1/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 23 | 20%1/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 19.5 | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Season | 23 | 33%1/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 21 | 29%5/17 | 47%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 23.7
- points
- Median team total
- 23
- points
- Cleared
- 1 of 3
- 33% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs GB | 39 | 24 | +15 |
| Week 2 | @ CHI | 9 | 21 | −12 |
| Week 3 | @ TB | 23 | 22 | +1 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 24.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Minnesota Vikings's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 24.5
- Season average
- 23.7
- vs the line
- −0.8
- Market rank
- 16thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- MIA allow 28.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 38.5
- combined
- MIN spread
- −10
- favoured
- MIN implied total
- 24.25
- their half
- MIA implied total
- 14.25
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured at home
- Wind
- Dome
- no weather factor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 55
- MIN, from pace
- Drives
- 11.7
- 6th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.03
- needs 2.1 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 2.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 31.3
- 10th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Miami Dolphins allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Miami Dolphins defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 28.7 | 28th |
| Points per drive allowed | 3.07 | 32nd |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 79% | 29th |
| Drives faced / game | 9.3 | 3rd |
| Seconds per play | 34 | 1st |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 24
- Allowed on the road
- 31
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- +7 a game
Miami Dolphins travel to MIN, so the road figure is the one that applies — 7 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ TB | 23 | 16 | +7 | 39 | 22 |
| Week 2 | @ CHI | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 | 21 |
| Week 1 | vs GB | 39 | 22 | +17 | 61 | 24 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 24.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 24.5 | −102 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 24.5 | −105 | −125 |
| FanDuel | 24.5 | −106 | −120 |
| Caesars | 24.5 | −105 | −127 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 2, 7:06 PM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.