AFC East · 1–2
New England Patriots
@ Buffalo Bills · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 6.5
- Line
- 20.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 23.9
- our projection
- Difference
- +3.4
- +16.6% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 20.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 | +1.3 | −5.2 | 2 of 3 | +5.5 | +1 |
| Moneyline | 29% | 46% | +17.1 | 1 of 3 | 29% | 0 |
| Team Total | 20.5 | 23.9 | +3.4 | 0 of 3 | 20.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 48.5 | 49.1 | +0.6 | 0 of 3 | 49.5 | −1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT20.5opened
- Sep 29, 10:02 AM PT20.5held
Opened 20.5, now 20.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.85strong
- Game Total0.70strong
- Moneyline0.69strong
- BUF team total-0.31mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 20.5Under 20.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 20.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 23.9
- +3.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 0 of 3
- 0% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 10
- regular season
- Season average
- 12
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 10 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last 5 | 20 | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Last 10 | 27.5 | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Season | 10 | 0%0/3 | 0%0/3 |
| Last Season | 28 | 88%15/17 | 69%11/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 12
- points
- Median team total
- 10
- points
- Cleared
- 0 of 3
- 0% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ SEA | 10 | 20.8 | −10.8 |
| Week 2 | vs PIT | 20 | 23 | −3 |
| Week 3 | @ JAX | 6 | 21.8 | −15.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
New England Patriots are 1-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 0 of 3 graded games (0%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 20.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift New England Patriots's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 20.5
- Season average
- 12
- vs the line
- −8.5
- Market rank
- 32ndin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- BUF allow 26
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 48.5
- combined
- NE spread
- +6.5
- underdog
- NE implied total
- 21
- their half
- BUF implied total
- 27.5
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 59.3
- NE, from pace
- Drives
- 10
- 25th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.2
- needs 2.1 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 2.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 30.6
- 16th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Buffalo Bills allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Buffalo Bills defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 26 | 21st |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.52 | 25th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 64% | 13th |
| Drives faced / game | 10.3 | 9th |
| Seconds per play | 28.5 | 27th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 23.5
- Allowed on the road
- 31
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- −7.5 a game
Buffalo Bills host NE, so the home figure is the one that applies — 7.5 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ JAX | 6 | 35 | −29 | 41 | 21.75 |
| Week 2 | vs PIT | 20 | 3 | +17 | 23 | 23 |
| Week 1 | @ SEA | 10 | 13 | −3 | 23 | 20.75 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 20.5 — over/under odds across the market. 2 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 20.5 | −111 | −115 |
| Caesars | 20.5 | −115 | −115 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Sep 29, 10:02 AM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.