NFC South · 1–2
New Orleans Saints
vs Atlanta Falcons · Mon, Oct 5 · 5:15 PM PTFavoured by 2.5
- Line
- 24.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 21
- our projection
- Difference
- −3.5
- −14.3% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −2.5 | −0.5 | +2 | 1 of 3 | −2.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 48.5 | 41.5 | −7 | 2 of 3 | 47.5 | +1 |
| Team Total | 24.5 | 21 | −3.5 | 2 of 3 | — | — |
| Moneyline | 60% | 52% | −8.5 | 1 of 3 | 60% | 0 |
How the line moved
- Sep 29, 5:16 PM PT24.5current line
A single observation of this market so far (24.5) — no opening to compare against yet. The open and every move fill in here as the line is tracked.
Moves with this
- Spread0.72strong
- Game Total0.56moderate
- Moneyline0.54moderate
- ATL team total-0.18weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 24.5Under 24.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 24.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 21
- −3.5 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 27
- regular season
- Season average
- 27
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 27 | 67%2/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 27 | 60%3/5 | 80%4/5 |
| Last 10 | 24 | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Season | 27 | 67%2/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last Season | 17 | 18%3/17 | 47%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 27
- points
- Median team total
- 27
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ DET | 30 | 21.3 | +8.8 |
| Week 2 | @ BAL | 24 | 18.5 | +5.5 |
| Week 3 | vs LV | 27 | 23.5 | +3.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
New Orleans Saints are 1-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 3 of 3 graded games (100%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 24.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift New Orleans Saints's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 24.5
- Season average
- 27
- vs the line
- +2.5
- Market rank
- 11thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- ATL allow 22.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 48.5
- combined
- NO spread
- −2.5
- favoured
- NO implied total
- 25.5
- their half
- ATL implied total
- 23
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- favoured at home
- Wind
- Dome
- no weather factor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 74
- NO, from pace
- Drives
- 11.3
- 12th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.38
- needs 2.2 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 4.3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 28
- 28th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Atlanta Falcons allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Atlanta Falcons defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 22.7 | 15th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2 | 13th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 50% | 6th |
| Drives faced / game | 11.3 | 23rd |
| Seconds per play | 26.2 | 32nd |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 34
- Allowed on the road
- 17
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- −17 a game
Atlanta Falcons travel to NO, so the road figure is the one that applies — 17 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs LV | 27 | 35 | −8 | 62 | 23.5 |
| Week 2 | @ BAL | 24 | 17 | +7 | 41 | 18.5 |
| Week 1 | @ DET | 30 | 31 | −1 | 61 | 21.25 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 24.5 — over/under odds across the market. 1 book is on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 24.5 | −115 | −111 |
| Caesars | 25.5 | −115 | −115 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Sep 29, 5:16 PM PT. 1 of 2 books below are on a different number than 24.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.