NFC East · 2–1
New York Giants
vs Arizona Cardinals · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 2.5
- Line
- 21.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 25.1
- our projection
- Difference
- +3.6
- +16.7% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- −1, from 22.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | −2.5 | −5 | 2 of 3 | −1.5 | +4 |
| Team Total | 21.5 | 25.1 | +3.6 | 1 of 3 | 22.5 | −1 |
| Moneyline | 45% | 57% | +11.9 | 2 of 3 | 54% | −8.6 |
| Game Total | 44.5 | 47.7 | +3.2 | 1 of 3 | 43.5 | +1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT22.5opened
- Oct 3, 1:00 PM PT21.5−1
Opened 22.5, now 21.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.77strong
- Spread0.69strong
- Moneyline0.40mild
- ARI team total0.11weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 21.5Under 21.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 21.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 25.1
- +3.6 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 12
- regular season
- Season average
- 15.3
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 12 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 28 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 20.5 | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Season | 12 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last Season | 21 | 41%7/17 | 59%10/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 15.3
- points
- Median team total
- 12
- points
- Cleared
- 1 of 3
- 33% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs DAL | 28 | 22.3 | +5.8 |
| Week 2 | @ LA | 6 | 20.5 | −14.5 |
| Week 3 | vs TEN | 12 | 20 | −8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
New York Giants are 2-1 on the season and have hit the team total in 1 of 3 graded games (33%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 21.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift New York Giants's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 21.5
- Season average
- 15.3
- vs the line
- −6.2
- Market rank
- 28thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- ARI allow 27
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 44.5
- combined
- NYG spread
- +2.5
- underdog
- NYG implied total
- 21
- their half
- ARI implied total
- 23.5
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- underdog at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 59
- NYG, from pace
- Drives
- 9.3
- 30th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.64
- needs 2.3 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 32
- 6th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Arizona Cardinals allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Arizona Cardinals defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 27 | 24th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.7 | 28th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 79% | 26th |
| Drives faced / game | 10 | 7th |
| Seconds per play | 31.2 | 8th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 31
- Allowed on the road
- 25
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- −6 a game
Arizona Cardinals travel to NYG, so the road figure is the one that applies — 6 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs TEN | 12 | 7 | +5 | 19 | 20 |
| Week 2 | @ LA | 6 | 28 | −22 | 34 | 20.5 |
| Week 1 | vs DAL | 28 | 20 | +8 | 48 | 22.25 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 21.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 21.5 | −102 | −118 |
| BetOnline | 21.5 | +100 | −130 |
| FanDuel | 21.5 | −106 | −120 |
| Caesars | 21.5 | +101 | −134 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 4:02 AM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.