AFC East · 1–2
New York Jets
@ Chicago Bears · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 3.5
- Line
- 19.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 19.4
- our projection
- Difference
- −0.1
- −0.5% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 19.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 | +10.8 | +7.3 | 2 of 3 | +3 | +0.5 |
| Moneyline | 39% | 21% | −18.2 | 1 of 3 | 43% | −3.2 |
| Game Total | 43 | 49.5 | +6.5 | 1 of 3 | 43.5 | −0.5 |
| Team Total | 19.5 | 19.4 | −0.1 | 2 of 3 | 19.5 | 0 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT19.5opened
- Oct 2, 10:02 AM PT19.5held
Opened 19.5, now 19.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.75strong
- Spread0.63strong
- Moneyline0.59moderate
- CHI team total0.16weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 19.5Under 19.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 19.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 19.4
- −0.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 23
- regular season
- Season average
- 21.3
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 23 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 17 | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Last 10 | 13.5 | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Season | 23 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 14 | 47%8/17 | 38%6/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 21.3
- points
- Median team total
- 23
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ TEN | 23 | 19 | +4 |
| Week 2 | vs GB | 17 | 20.5 | −3.5 |
| Week 3 | @ DET | 24 | 21.3 | +2.8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
New York Jets are 1-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 19.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift New York Jets's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 19.5
- Season average
- 21.3
- vs the line
- +1.8
- Market rank
- 17thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- CHI allow 17.7
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 43
- combined
- NYJ spread
- +3.5
- underdog
- NYJ implied total
- 19.75
- their half
- CHI implied total
- 23.25
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 64.7
- NYJ, from pace
- Drives
- 10.7
- 21st in the league
- Points per drive
- 2
- needs 1.8 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 31.9
- 7th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Chicago Bears allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Chicago Bears defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 17.7 | 7th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.71 | 7th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 67% | 20th |
| Drives faced / game | 10.3 | 11th |
| Seconds per play | 28.5 | 28th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 8
- Allowed on the road
- 37
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- −29 a game
Chicago Bears host NYJ, so the home figure is the one that applies — 29 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ DET | 24 | 31 | −7 | 55 | 21.25 |
| Week 2 | vs GB | 17 | 20 | −3 | 37 | 20.5 |
| Week 1 | @ TEN | 23 | 10 | +13 | 33 | 19 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 19.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 19.5 | −125 | +105 |
| BetOnline | 20.5 | +100 | −130 |
| FanDuel | 19.5 | −128 | +100 |
| Caesars | 19.5 | −127 | −106 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 2, 10:02 AM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 19.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:56 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.