AFC North · 2–2
Pittsburgh Steelers
@ Cleveland Browns · Thu, Oct 1 · 5:15 PM PTFavoured by 2.5
- Line
- 20.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 20.4
- our projection
- Difference
- −0.1
- −0.5% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- +1, from 19.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L4 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −2.5 | −3.2 | −0.7 | 2 of 4 | −2.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 38.5 | 37.6 | −0.9 | 2 of 4 | 37.5 | +1 |
| Moneyline | 62% | 59% | −2.1 | 2 of 4 | 58% | +3.2 |
| Team Total | 20.5 | 20.4 | −0.1 | 2 of 4 | 19.5 | +1 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 5:17 AM PT19.5opened
- at close20.5+1
Opened 19.5, now 20.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.81strong
- Spread0.72strong
- Moneyline0.60moderate
- CLE team total0.18weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 4
Cleared 20.5Under 20.5
- The line
- 20.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 20.4
- −0.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 4
- 50% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 4
- each week's own close
- Median
- 22
- regular season
- Season average
- 19.3
- 4 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 24 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 24 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 25 | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 22 | 50%2/4 | 50%2/4 |
| Last Season | 26 | 77%13/17 | 71%12/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 4
- Average
- 19.3
- points
- Median team total
- 22
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 4
- 50%
- vs the full 4
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs ATL | 20 | 23.5 | −3.5 |
| Week 2 | @ NE | 3 | 18.5 | −15.5 |
| Week 3 | vs CIN | 30 | 19.5 | +10.5 |
| Week 4 | @ CLE | 24 | 20.5 | +3.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 4 graded games (50%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 20.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift Pittsburgh Steelers's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 20.5
- Season average
- 19.3
- vs the line
- −1.2
- Market rank
- 23rdin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- CLE allow 23.8
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 38.5
- combined
- PIT spread
- −2.5
- favoured
- PIT implied total
- 20.5
- their half
- CLE implied total
- 18
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- favoured on the road
- Wind
- 11 mph
- 77°F
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 62.5
- PIT, from pace
- Drives
- 11.8
- 5th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.64
- needs 1.7 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 29.6
- 22nd slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Cleveland Browns allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Cleveland Browns defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 23.8 | 18th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.16 | 18th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 60% | 11th |
| Drives faced / game | 11 | 19th |
| Seconds per play | 29.1 | 25th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 21
- Allowed on the road
- 26.5
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- −5.5 a game
Cleveland Browns host PIT, so the home figure is the one that applies — 5.5 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | @ CLE | 24 | 27 | −3 | 51 | 20.5 |
| Week 3 | vs CIN | 30 | 27 | +3 | 57 | 19.5 |
| Week 2 | @ NE | 3 | 20 | −17 | 23 | 18.5 |
| Week 1 | vs ATL | 20 | 13 | +7 | 33 | 23.5 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 20.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 20.5 | +100 | −120 |
| BetOnline | 19.5 | −135 | +105 |
| FanDuel | 20.5 | +102 | −130 |
| Caesars | 20.5 | −114 | −117 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 1, 5:13 PM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 20.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 5:17 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.