NFC West · 3–0
San Francisco 49ers
vs Denver Broncos · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:25 PM PTFavoured by 2.5
- Line
- 24.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 23.9
- our projection
- Difference
- −0.6
- −2.4% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- +1, from 23.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −2.5 | −3.5 | −1 | 3 of 3 | −3 | +0.5 |
| Game Total | 48 | 44.3 | −3.7 | 1 of 3 | 46 | +2 |
| Team Total | 24.5 | 23.9 | −0.6 | 3 of 3 | 23.5 | +1 |
| Moneyline | 59% | 60% | +0.9 | 3 of 3 | 60% | −0.8 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT23.5opened
- Sep 30, 3:17 PM PT24.5+1
Opened 23.5, now 24.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.85strong
- Spread0.62strong
- Moneyline0.54moderate
- DEN team total0.38mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 24.5Under 24.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 24.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 23.9
- −0.6 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 3
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 35
- regular season
- Season average
- 32.7
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 35 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 35 | 80%4/5 | 80%4/5 |
| Last 10 | 35.5 | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Season | 35 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last Season | 26 | 53%9/17 | 53%9/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 32.7
- points
- Median team total
- 35
- points
- Cleared
- 3 of 3
- 100% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ LA | 27 | 22 | +5 |
| Week 2 | vs MIA | 35 | 28.5 | +6.5 |
| Week 3 | vs ARI | 36 | 28 | +8 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
San Francisco 49ers are 3-0 on the season and have hit the team total in 3 of 3 graded games (100%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 24.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A close game script would shift San Francisco 49ers's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 24.5
- Season average
- 32.7
- vs the line
- +8.2
- Market rank
- 2ndin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- DEN allow 23.3
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 48
- combined
- SF spread
- −2.5
- favoured
- SF implied total
- 25.25
- their half
- DEN implied total
- 22.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- favoured at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 53.3
- SF, from pace
- Drives
- 9
- 31st in the league
- Points per drive
- 3.63
- needs 2.7 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 4.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 33.4
- 3rd slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Denver Broncos allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Denver Broncos defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 23.3 | 17th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.12 | 16th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 50% | 5th |
| Drives faced / game | 11 | 21st |
| Seconds per play | 29.3 | 24th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 19.5
- Allowed on the road
- 31
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- +11.5 a game
Denver Broncos travel to SF, so the road figure is the one that applies — 11.5 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs ARI | 36 | 30 | +6 | 66 | 28 |
| Week 2 | vs MIA | 35 | 13 | +22 | 48 | 28.5 |
| Week 1 | @ LA | 27 | 7 | +20 | 34 | 22 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 24.5 — over/under odds across the market. 2 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 24.5 | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 24.5 | −115 | −111 |
| Caesars | 25.5 | −114 | −118 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Sep 30, 3:17 PM PT. 1 of 3 books below are on a different number than 24.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:15 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.