NFC West · 2–1
Seattle Seahawks
vs Los Angeles Chargers · Sun, Oct 4 · 1:25 PM PTFavoured by 7
- Line
- 25.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 25.1
- our projection
- Difference
- −0.4
- −1.6% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 25.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | −7 | −10.1 | −3.1 | 1 of 3 | −6.5 | −0.5 |
| Game Total | 42.5 | 40 | −2.5 | 1 of 3 | 43.5 | −1 |
| Team Total | 25.5 | 25.1 | −0.4 | 2 of 3 | 25.5 | 0 |
| Moneyline | 78% | 77% | −0.5 | 2 of 3 | 76% | +1.6 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:04 PM PT25.5opened
- Oct 2, 1:26 PM PT25.5held
Opened 25.5, now 25.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.81strong
- Spread0.55moderate
- LAC team total0.34mild
- Moneyline0.18weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 25.5Under 25.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 25.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 25.1
- −0.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 31
- regular season
- Season average
- 25
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 31 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 27 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 28.5 | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 31 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 27 | 65%11/17 | 65%11/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 25
- points
- Median team total
- 31
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs NE | 13 | 23.8 | −10.8 |
| Week 2 | @ ARI | 31 | 22 | +9 |
| Week 3 | @ WAS | 31 | 24.5 | +6.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Seattle Seahawks are 2-1 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 25.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A leading game script would shift Seattle Seahawks's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 25.5
- Season average
- 25
- vs the line
- −0.5
- Market rank
- 14thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- LAC allow 25.3
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 42.5
- combined
- SEA spread
- −7
- favoured
- SEA implied total
- 24.75
- their half
- LAC implied total
- 17.75
- the other half
- Projected script
- Leading
- favoured at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 59.3
- SEA, from pace
- Drives
- 11
- 16th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.27
- needs 2.3 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 4.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 32
- 5th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Los Angeles Chargers allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Los Angeles Chargers defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 25.3 | 20th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.17 | 19th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 57% | 9th |
| Drives faced / game | 11.7 | 28th |
| Seconds per play | 30.8 | 14th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 26
- Allowed on the road
- 24
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- −2 a game
Los Angeles Chargers travel to SEA, so the road figure is the one that applies — 2 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ WAS | 31 | 33 | −2 | 64 | 24.5 |
| Week 2 | @ ARI | 31 | 7 | +24 | 38 | 22 |
| Week 1 | vs NE | 13 | 10 | +3 | 23 | 23.75 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 25.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 25.5 | −110 | −108 |
| BetOnline | 24.5 | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 25.5 | −118 | −108 |
| Caesars | 25.5 | −114 | −117 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 1:28 AM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 25.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:04 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.