AFC South · 0–3
Tennessee Titans
@ Baltimore Ravens · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 11.5
- Line
- 15.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 18.9
- our projection
- Difference
- +3.4
- +21.9% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 15.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +11.5 | +8.4 | −3.1 | 2 of 3 | +10.5 | +1 |
| Team Total | 15.5 | 18.9 | +3.4 | 1 of 3 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Moneyline | 17% | 27% | +9.9 | 0 of 3 | 18% | −1 |
| Game Total | 42.5 | 46.2 | +3.7 | 1 of 3 | 44.5 | −2 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 9:55 AM PT15.5opened
- Oct 1, 4:00 PM PT15.5held
Opened 15.5, now 15.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.73strong
- Spread0.63strong
- Moneyline0.53moderate
- BAL team total0.13weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 15.5Under 15.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 15.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 18.9
- +3.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 10
- regular season
- Season average
- 12.3
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 10 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 10 | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Last 10 | 22 | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 10 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last Season | 19 | 53%9/17 | 53%9/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 12.3
- points
- Median team total
- 10
- points
- Cleared
- 1 of 3
- 33% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs NYJ | 10 | 20.5 | −10.5 |
| Week 2 | vs PHI | 20 | 16.3 | +3.8 |
| Week 3 | @ NYG | 7 | 17.5 | −10.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Tennessee Titans are 0-3 on the season and have hit the team total in 1 of 3 graded games (33%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 15.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift Tennessee Titans's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 15.5
- Season average
- 12.3
- vs the line
- −3.2
- Market rank
- 30thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- BAL allow 26
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 42.5
- combined
- TEN spread
- +11.5
- underdog
- TEN implied total
- 15.5
- their half
- BAL implied total
- 27
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 52.3
- TEN, from pace
- Drives
- 9.7
- 27th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.28
- needs 1.6 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 2.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 27.1
- 30th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Baltimore Ravens allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Baltimore Ravens defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 26 | 22nd |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.44 | 21st |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 67% | 17th |
| Drives faced / game | 10.7 | 14th |
| Seconds per play | 29.7 | 23rd |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 24
- Allowed on the road
- 27
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- −3 a game
Baltimore Ravens host TEN, so the home figure is the one that applies — 3 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ NYG | 7 | 12 | −5 | 19 | 17.5 |
| Week 2 | vs PHI | 20 | 24 | −4 | 44 | 16.25 |
| Week 1 | vs NYJ | 10 | 23 | −13 | 33 | 20.5 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 15.5 — over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 14.5 | −108 | −110 |
| BetOnline | 15.5 | −105 | −125 |
| FanDuel | 15.5 | −113 | −113 |
| Caesars | 15.5 | −105 | −127 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 1, 3:59 PM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 15.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 9:55 AM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.