Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Brown
WR · NE @ MIA
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Knee
Projected points12.3pts
if he plays · 46% to play
Start if active
Bench
A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start DeVonta Smith.
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 48%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start A.J. Brown instead if you go by the projection: he projects 6.6 more.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. A.J. Brown missed practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Weather in A.J. Brown's game: Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. As of Fri 1:00 PM ET
Highlights
SmithStart if activeWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 32%targetsHe draws 32% of his team’s targets.
- 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
- WASvs WRsEdgeWAS is the 11th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
BrownFirst outWR · NE @ MIAUsually 6.4+5.9pts this week
Helps him
- +2.9ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.49 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
- +1.5ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 48.5 receiving yards, above his usual 33.7.
- +1.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 4.5 catches, above his usual 3.0.
- 20.3ceilingHis best weeks reach about 20.3 points.
Hurts him
- MIAvs WRsEdgeMIA is the 4th toughest defense for receivers.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionSmith: 5.7Brown: 12.3 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionSmith: Our estimateBrown: 2.9
Expected TDsthis weekSmith: Our estimateBrown: 0.49
Projected team pointsSmith: 17.0Brown: 25.0 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameSmith: 0.8Brown: 1.0 (best)
Role
Snap shareSmith: 87% (best)Brown: 70%
Usage worthptsSmith: 17.4 (best)Brown: 11.7
Target shareSmith: 32% (best)Brown: 22%
Targets / gameSmith: 10.3 (best)Brown: 6.7
Air yards shareSmith: 48% (best)Brown: 36%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsSmith: AboveBrown: Below
WOPRSmith: 0.81 (best)Brown: 0.56
RZ target shareSmith: 27%Brown: 30% (best)
Catch rateSmith: 63% (best)Brown: 45%
SeparationSmith: 2.4 yds (best)Brown: 2.1 yds
YAC over expectedSmith: +0.3 (best)Brown: −1.1
Usage worth vs scoredSmith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3Brown: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 6.4
Vacated targets this weekSmith: 0.0Brown: 9.0 (best)
Inside 10 target shareSmith: 33% (best)Brown: 17%
Range
FloorSmith: 0.0Brown: 6.8 (best)
CeilingSmith: 9.5Brown: 20.3 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerSmith: 17%Brown: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Smith: 29%Brown: 3 games
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterSmith: 8%Brown: 3 games
SteadinessSmith: Steady±8.4 ptsBrown: 3 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmSmith: B (best)Brown: D-
Game scriptSmith: Expected to trailBrown: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterSmith: 1.3Brown: 0.8 (best)
Defense funnelSmith: NeutralBrown: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedSmith: 28th (soft) (best)Brown: 18th (average)
Starting QBSmith: McKee (Active)Brown: Maye (Active)
Opp defender outSmith: Kinlaw (DT)Brown: None listed
WeatherSmith: No concernBrown: Outdoor73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain
Roof / surfacegrassSmith: OpenBrown: Open
Rest / scheduleSmith: NormalBrown: 10 days rest
Opp paceSmith: 12th (average) (best)Brown: 31st (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameSmith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)Brown: 2.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedSmith: 67%28th (soft)Brown: 72% (best)31st (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgSmith: 20.2 (best)Brown: 6.4
Last 5 avgSmith: 17.3 (best)Brown: 6.4
vs seasonSmith: +3.0 (best)Brown: Rising
Yards per route runSmith: 2.52 (best)Brown: 1.46
Receiving aDOTSmith: 12.2Brown: 13.4
Target share trendSmith: SteadyBrown: Steady
Games since injurySmith: 0Brown: None recently
Crowd
Started in leaguesSmith: 49%Brown: 83% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterSmith: WR63Brown: WR19 (best)
Yards linereceivingSmith: Our estimateBrown: 48.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.