Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Washington
RB · LV @ NYJ
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points6.6pts
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or Mike Washington Jr.: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start Mike Washington Jr.
- Ahead by
- +9.0pts
- over Washington if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start Mike Washington Jr..
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Mike Washington Jr. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
WashingtonIf he sitsRB · LV @ NYJUsually 4.2+2.4pts this week
Helps him
- +0.8ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.27 touchdowns, above his usual 0.14.
Hurts him
- 13%touchesHe handles only 13% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 6th toughestper carryEdgeNYJ allows plenty of RB chances because teams run on them a lot; per carry or target they’re tough (0.79 pts, 6th toughest).
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Washington: 6.6
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateWashington: 1.6
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateWashington: 0.27
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3Washington: 22.0 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2 (best)Washington: 0.1
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8 (best)Washington: 1.1
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5 (best)Washington: 0.0
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Washington: 21%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Washington: 4.4
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Washington: 13%
Target shareJones: 11% (best)Washington: 2%
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Washington: 6.1
Targets / gameJones: 3.2 (best)Washington: 0.9
Air yards shareJones: Behind the lineWashington: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Washington: 0.0
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7 (best)Washington: 0.7
Goal line carry shareJones: 50% (best)Washington: 9%
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3 (best)Washington: 1.1
Rush success rateJones: 35% (best)Washington: 30%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0%Washington: 5.0% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Washington: Earned by usage 4.4Scored 4.2
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Washington: 27.9
Points from rushingJones: 75%Washington: 86%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowWashington: 0 RZ targets
WOPRJones: 0.17 (best)Washington: 0.03
RZ target shareJones: 14% (best)Washington: 0%
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Washington: 0%
Catch rateJones: 68% (best)Washington: 50%
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / game (best)Washington: 3.6 pts / game
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Washington: 2.8 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Washington: 4.0
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Washington: 10.2
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Washington: 20%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Washington: 2 games
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22%Washington: 2 games
SteadinessJones: Very steady±4.8 ptsWashington: 2 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionJones: C2026, 6 gmWashington: B (best)2026, 7 gm
Game scriptJones: Expected to trailWashington: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0 (best)Washington: 1.1
Defense funnelJones: NeutralWashington: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average)Washington: 24th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleJones: LeadWashington: Backup
Roof / surfaceturfJones: DomeWashington: Open
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalWashington: Normal
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Washington: 28th (slow)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18%16th (average)Washington: 14% (best)27th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowed12th (average)Jones: 4.1Washington: 4.1
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Washington: 5th (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameJones: 0.01st (tough)Washington: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74% (best)12th (average)Washington: 71%7th (tough)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Washington: Cousins (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0 (best)Washington: 3.6
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8 (best)Washington: 5.0
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady) (best)Washington: −0.7 (Cooling)
Yards per carryJones: 4.2Washington: 4.9 (best)
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Washington: 5.7
Yards per route runJones: 0.85 (best)Washington: 0.34
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Washington: 0.7
Touch share trendJones: Left Week 7 hurtWashington: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43%Washington: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Washington: RB34
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateWashington: 31.5
Deciding on someone else?
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