New
Week8 · 2026
Starting1
Scoring
New comparison
Toss-up

Downs

WR · IND @ JAX

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate

First out

Douglas

WR · MIA vs NE

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points7.6pts

Toss-up

Bench

Caleb Douglas or Josh Downs: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Josh Downs gets the nod over Caleb Douglas.

Ahead by
+2.7pts
over Douglas
Confidence
Lower
The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started
41%
of leagues

Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Flips if

Start Caleb Douglas instead if you want a faster paced opponent.

Risk

Caleb Douglas has played 1 game since missing time. Weather in Caleb Douglas's game: Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 12:00 PM ET
DownsToss-upWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week

Helps him

  1. +1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
  2. +1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
  3. JAXvs WRsEdgeJAX is the 4th softest defense for receivers.

Hurts him

  1. −0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
  2. 18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
  3. 43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.
DouglasFirst outWR · MIA vs NEUsually 13.1−5.5pts this week

Helps him

  1. 21.0last weekHe caught 2 for 70 yards and two touchdowns last week (21.0 points).

Hurts him

  1. −2.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.21 touchdowns, below his usual 0.67.
  2. −2.4ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 37.5 receiving yards, below his usual 61.0.
  3. −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, below his usual 3.0.
  4. 4.3per gameHe sees only 4.3 targets a game.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Stat
Scoring
ProjectionDowns: 10.3 (best)Douglas: 7.6
TD pointsof the projectionDowns: Our estimateDouglas: 1.3
Expected TDsthis weekDowns: Our estimateDouglas: 0.21
Projected team pointsDowns: 18.3 (best)Douglas: 18.0
Red zone targetsper gameDowns: 0.7Douglas: 0.7
Role
Snap shareDowns: 82%Douglas: 82%
Usage worthptsDowns: 11.4 (best)Douglas: 7.5
Target shareDowns: 20% (best)Douglas: 18%
Targets / gameDowns: 6.6 (best)Douglas: 4.3
Air yards shareDowns: 29% (best)Douglas: 23%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsDowns: BelowDouglas: 2 RZ targets
WOPRDowns: 0.50 (best)Douglas: 0.42
RZ target shareDowns: 23%Douglas: 50% (best)
Catch rateDowns: 57%Douglas: 69% (best)
SeparationDowns: 2.4 ydsDouglas: 5.3 yds (best)
YAC over expectedDowns: +0.7Douglas: +0.8 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredDowns: Earned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2Douglas: Earned by usage 7.5Scored 13.1
Vacated targets this weekDowns: 3.5 (best)Douglas: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareDowns: 0%Douglas: 100% (best)
Range
FloorDowns: 6.2 (best)Douglas: 4.2
CeilingDowns: 16.5 (best)Douglas: 12.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerDowns: 0%Douglas: 31%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Downs: 0%Douglas: 3 games
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterDowns: 43%Douglas: 3 games
SteadinessDowns: Very steady±4.0 pts · 7 gamesDouglas: 3 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionDowns: A (best)2026, 6 gmDouglas: C+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptDowns: Expected to trailDouglas: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterDowns: 1.5Douglas: 1.0 (best)
Defense funnelDowns: NeutralDouglas: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedDowns: 30th (soft) (best)Douglas: 19th (average)
Starting QBDowns: Jones (Active)Douglas: Willis (Active)
WeatherDowns: No concernDouglas: Outdoor73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain
Roof / surfacegrassDowns: OpenDouglas: Open
Rest / scheduleDowns: NormalDouglas: Normal
Opp paceDowns: 23rd (slow)Douglas: 16th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameDowns: 4.0 (best)27th (soft)Douglas: 2.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedDowns: 65%24th (soft)Douglas: 66% (best)26th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgDowns: 6.7Douglas: 13.1 (best)
Last 5 avgDowns: 7.5Douglas: 13.1 (best)
vs seasonDowns: −1.5 (Cooling)Douglas: Rising (best)
Yards per route runDowns: 1.39Douglas: 2.86 (best)
Receiving aDOTDowns: 10.7Douglas: 10.5
Target share trendDowns: SteadyDouglas: Steady
Games since injuryDowns: None recentlyDouglas: 1
Crowd
Started in leaguesDowns: 41%Douglas: 61% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterDowns: WR33 (best)Douglas: WR52
Yards linereceivingDowns: Our estimateDouglas: 37.5

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