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Scoring
#1 Start

Maye

QB · NE vs BUF

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

17.9pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Williams

QB · CHI vs NYJ

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

17.7pts

opportunity

Lower Conf

Caleb Williams or Drake Maye: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Drake Maye over Caleb Williams by 0.2. Drake Maye leads at 17.9. Caleb Williams is the first one out, 0.2 short.

Crowd: 36% of managers started Maye.

Availability & news

  • Drake MayePractice: Full

  • Caleb WilliamsPractice: DNP

    Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Drake MayeStart
QB · NE vs BUF

Pros

  • Rushing floor6.1 rush att/g
  • Reliable73% consistency

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D- vs QB
  • Cooling off7.2 last 3
Caleb WilliamsBench
QB · CHI vs NYJ

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs QB

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

MayeStart
WilliamsBench
Projection17.917.7
Floor13.813.6
Ceiling23.922.5
Pass attempts28.933.4
Matchup grade(recency weighted)D-A+
Implied team total20.823.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Maye 7.2, Williams 21.2.

Maye is listed: Practice: Full.

Williams (Practice: DNP): “Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Maye 3.8, Williams 7.7 (PPR points).

Why Drake Maye

Start Drake Maye — projects 17.9, a tough matchup vs BUF.

Drake Maye projects 17.9 points on a 13.8–23.9 range. The matchup grades as tough against BUF. Usage: pass attempts / game at 28.9. Net: start Drake Maye this week.

Working for Maye: Rushing floor (6.1 rush att/g), Reliable (73% consistency).

Working against Maye: Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs QB), Cooling off (7.2 last 3).

Where Maye leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.9 vs 17.7); Floor (13.8 vs 13.6); Ceiling (23.9 vs 22.5); Consistency (73% vs 61%); Bust rate (0% vs 6%); Completions / game (20.8 vs 19.4); Yards per attempt (8.9 vs 6.9); Touchdown rate (6% vs 5%); Rush attempts / game (6.1 vs 4.5); Rush yards / game (26.5 vs 22.5); Rushing production share (19% vs 17%).

Why Caleb Williams

Sit Caleb Williams — projects 17.7, a favorable matchup vs NYJ.

Caleb Williams projects 17.7 points on a 13.6–22.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: pass attempts / game at 33.4. Net: bench Caleb Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs QB).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Pass attempts (33.4 vs 28.9); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs D-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 20.8); Last 3 avg (21.2 vs 7.2); Last 5 avg (21.5 vs 14.0); vs season (+2.9 vs -2.8); Boom rate (12% vs 6%); Pass attempts / game (33.4 vs 28.9).

Recent form

Drake Maye's last 5 games: PPR points 32.4, 15.7, 9.8, 8, 3.8 (oldest to newest).

Caleb Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 21, 23, 18.6, 37.3, 7.7 (oldest to newest).

Maye has already beaten Williams's 17.7 projection in 1 of his 5; Williams has beaten Maye's 17.9 in 4 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Drake Maye (NE) faces BUF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.8, spread +7.0.

Caleb Williams (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.

What flips it

Maye's edge is 0.2 points (17.9 to 17.7). Williams's ceiling (22.5) clears Maye's projection, so a big game from Williams flips it. Maye's floor (13.8) sits under Williams's projection, so a quiet game from Maye flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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