New

Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

Pass TD

New comparison

Lean

Williams

QB · CHI @ SEA

Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET

Projected points17.7pts

First out

Mahomes

QB · KC @ DEN

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points15.8pts

Lean

Bench

Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Lean Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes.

Ahead by: +1.9pts; over Mahomes
Confidence: Moderate; Lean
Started: 69%; of leagues

Flips if

Start Patrick Mahomes instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (26% of his games to 21%).

Risk

Caleb Williams has played 2 games since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

WilliamsLeanQB · CHI @ SEAUsually 20.9−3.2pts this week

Helps him

+1.0ptspass TDsHis lines put him at 1.50 passing TDs, above his usual 1.25.
26.3ceilingHis best weeks reach about 26.3 points.

Hurts him

−1.9ptsrush TDsHis lines put him at 0.19 rushing TDs, below his usual 0.50.
−1.1ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 21.5 rushing yards, below his usual 32.0.
−1.1ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 227.5 passing yards, below his usual 255.0.
SEAvs QBsEdgeSEA is the 2nd toughest defense for quarterbacks.

MahomesFirst outQB · KC @ DENUsually 16.7−0.8pts this week

Helps him

OutEllissEdgeHe faces a Broncos defense without linebacker Jonah Elliss.

Hurts him

−0.9ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 223.5 passing yards, below his usual 245.7.
4th toughestper passEdgeDEN allows plenty of QB chances because teams throw a lot against them; per pass they’re tough (0.40 pts, 4th toughest).
23%pressureEdgeThe DEN pass rush gets pressure on 23% of dropbacks.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection17.715.8

Rush TD pointsof the projection1.10.9

Rush TDs expectedthis week0.190.15

Projected team points21.820.8

Goal line carriesper game0.30.0

Red zone carriesper game1.50.3

Pass attempts / game31.031.8

Role

Snap share97%100%

Touch share11%7%

Touches / game6.03.2

Yards per attempt8.27.7

Pass TD rate4%5%

Rush yards / game32.011.8

Points from rushing30%13%

Rushing points / game6.2 pts / game2.2 pts / game

Rushing floor3.3 pts / game1.7 pts / game

Designed runs / game2.00.2

Scrambles / game3.52.0

Dropbacks / game37.535.2

Designed runs inside the 10 / game0.80.0

Sacks per dropback8%3%

INT rate0.8%2.1%

Pass aDOT7.06.0

High value touches / game1.00.2

Goal line carry share10%0%

Red zone touches / game1.50.3

Rush success rate55%54%

Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)4.5%0%

Range

Floor12.811.6

Ceiling26.323.8

Points from TDssteadier when lower14%6%

Big weeks (25+ pts)21%26%

Dud weeks (under 12 pts)lower is better29%28%

SteadinessSteady±10.1 ptsVery steady±8.4 pts

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmFC-

Game scriptExpected to trailExpected to lead

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.71.4

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed1st (tough)17th (average)

Opp sacks / game2.43.0

Opp defender outNone listedElliss (LB)

Roof / surfaceOpenturfOpengrass

Rest / schedule11 days restNormal

Opp pace9th (fast)30th (slow)

Opp pressure rate38%1st (tough)23%8th (tough)

Pressure faced27%24%

Opp rush yds allowed6th (tough)28th (soft)

Opp stuff rate21%6th (tough)18%14th (average)

Opp yards per carry allowed3.62nd (tough)4.724th (soft)

Opp deep targets allowed / game3.010th (tough)3.715th (average)

Opp catch rate allowed66%12th (average)62%3rd (tough)

Form

Last 3 avg15.411.2

Last 5 avg20.915.7

vs season−5.5−5.5 (Cooling)

Yards per carry5.33.7

Carries / game6.03.2

Pass volume trendSteadySteady

Games since injury2None recently

Crowd

Started in leagues70%59%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterQB6QB15

Yards linepassing227.5223.5

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

Sit or start?