nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Williams

RB · LA vs PHI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

19.8pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Swift

RB · CHI vs NYJ

Questionable
Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

19.6pts

market

Lower Conf

D'Andre Swift or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Kyren Williams over D'Andre Swift by 0.2. Kyren Williams leads at 19.8. D'Andre Swift is the first one out, 0.2 short.

Crowd: 97% of managers started Williams, 96% started Swift.

Availability & news

  • D'Andre SwiftQuestionable

    Swift didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to a knee injury.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Kyren WilliamsStart
RB · LA vs PHI

Pros

  • Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • High floor12.7 floor
D'Andre SwiftBench
RB · CHI vs NYJ

Pros

  • Goal-line back1.1 GL carries/g
  • Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
  • Positive game scriptFavored

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WilliamsStart
SwiftBench
Projection19.819.6
Floor12.710.3
Ceiling20.422.4
Touch share35%31%
Opportunity score13.913.2
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B-A+
Implied team total23.023.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Williams 6%, Swift 19%.

Swift (Questionable): “Swift didn't participate in Thursday's practice due to a knee injury.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Williams 21.8, Swift 10.8 (PPR points).

Why Kyren Williams

Start Kyren Williams — projects 19.8, an even matchup vs PHI.

Kyren Williams projects 19.8 points on a 12.7–20.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against PHI. Usage: carries / game at 15.2. Net: start Kyren Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (12.7 floor).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (19.8 vs 19.6); Floor (12.7 vs 10.3); Touch share (35% vs 31%); Opportunity score (13.9 vs 13.2); Consistency (62% vs 55%); Bust rate (6% vs 12%); Carries / game (15.2 vs 13.9); Touches / game (17.4 vs 16.1); Snap share (68% vs 58%); Goal line carries (20 vs 17); Red zone carries (61 vs 47).

Why D'Andre Swift

Sit D'Andre Swift — projects 19.6, a run-funnel matchup vs NYJ, with a rising role.

D'Andre Swift projects 19.6 points on a 10.3–22.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against NYJ. Usage: carries / game at 13.9. Net: bench D'Andre Swift this week.

Working for Swift: Goal-line back (1.1 GL carries/g), Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Positive game script (Favored).

Where Swift leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (22.4 vs 20.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 23.0); Last 3 avg (18.7 vs 17.7); Last 5 avg (16.8 vs 16.0); vs season (+1.9 vs +1.0); Boom rate (19% vs 6%); Target share (9% vs 8%); Yards per carry (4.9 vs 4.8).

Recent form

Kyren Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 16, 11.1, 15.5, 15.7, 21.8 (oldest to newest).

D'Andre Swift's last 5 games: PPR points 21.9, 5.8, 32.4, 12.9, 10.8 (oldest to newest).

Williams has already beaten Swift's 19.6 projection in 1 of his 5; Swift has beaten Williams's 19.8 in 2 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Kyren Williams (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -3.5.

D'Andre Swift (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.

What flips it

Williams's edge is 0.2 points (19.8 to 19.6). Swift's ceiling (22.4) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Swift flips it. Williams's floor (12.7) sits under Swift's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More D'Andre Swift comparisons

More Kyren Williams comparisons

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