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Scoring
#1 Start

Williams

RB · LA vs PHI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

19.8pts

market

High Conf
Bench

Judkins

RB · CLE vs PIT

FinalCLE 27 – 24 PIT

Final pts

21.6pts

17.3 proj · +4.3

Kyren Williams or Quinshon Judkins: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Kyren Williams. Bench Quinshon Judkins. Kyren Williams leads at 19.8. Quinshon Judkins is the first one out, 2.5 short.

Crowd: 97% of managers started Williams, 60% started Judkins.

Highlights

Kyren WilliamsStart
RB · LA vs PHI

Pros

  • Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • High floor12.7 floor
Quinshon JudkinsBench
RB · CLE vs PIT

Pros

  • Spike upside21.5 ceiling

Cons

  • Below your start line2.5 pts short
  • Low team total18.0 team total

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WilliamsStart
JudkinsBench
Projection19.817.3
Floor12.78.7
Ceiling20.421.5
Touch share35%34%
Opportunity score13.914.2
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B-D
Implied team total23.018.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Williams 6%, Judkins 29%.

Latest game on the card: Williams 21.8, Judkins 9.9 (PPR points).

Why Kyren Williams

Start Kyren Williams — projects 19.8, an even matchup vs PHI.

Kyren Williams projects 19.8 points on a 12.7–20.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against PHI. Usage: carries / game at 15.2. Net: start Kyren Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (12.7 floor).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (19.8 vs 17.3); Floor (12.7 vs 8.7); Touch share (35% vs 34%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D); Implied team total (23.0 vs 18.0); Last 3 avg (17.7 vs 8.9); Last 5 avg (16.0 vs 8.3); vs season (+1.0 vs -1.7); Consistency (62% vs 47%); Bust rate (6% vs 29%); Yards per carry (4.8 vs 3.6); Snap share (68% vs 50%); Goal line carries (20 vs 12); Red zone carries (61 vs 33).

Why Quinshon Judkins

Sit Quinshon Judkins — projects 17.3, a tough matchup vs PIT.

Quinshon Judkins projects 17.3 points on a 8.7–21.5 range. The matchup grades as tough against PIT. Usage: carries / game at 16.4. Net: bench Quinshon Judkins this week.

Working for Judkins: Spike upside (21.5 ceiling).

Working against Judkins: Below your start line (2.5 pts short), Low team total (18.0 team total).

Where Judkins leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (21.5 vs 20.4); Opportunity score (14.2 vs 13.9); Boom rate (14% vs 6%); Carries / game (16.4 vs 15.2); Touches / game (18.3 vs 17.4).

Recent form

Kyren Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 16, 11.1, 15.5, 15.7, 21.8 (oldest to newest).

Quinshon Judkins's last 5 games: PPR points 4.7, 10.1, 7, 9.8, 9.9 (oldest to newest).

Williams's worst of these 5 (11.1) beats Judkins's best (10.1).

Williams has already beaten Judkins's 17.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Judkins has beaten Williams's 19.8 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Kyren Williams (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -3.5.

Quinshon Judkins (CLE) played PIT (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +2.5.

What flips it

Williams's edge is 2.5 points (19.8 to 17.3). Judkins's ceiling (21.5) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Judkins flips it. Williams's floor (12.7) sits under Judkins's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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More Quinshon Judkins comparisons

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