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Scoring
#1 Start

Collins

WR · HOU vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

18.9pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Adams

WR · LA vs PHI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

17.7pts

market

Mod Conf

Davante Adams or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Nico Collins. Bench Davante Adams. Nico Collins leads at 18.9. Davante Adams is the first one out, 1.2 short.

Crowd: 64% of managers started Collins, 98% started Adams.

Availability & news

  • Nico CollinsPractice: Limited

    Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

  • Davante AdamsPractice: DNP

Highlights

Nico CollinsStart
WR · HOU vs DAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
  • High floor13.1 floor
Davante AdamsBench
WR · LA vs PHI

Pros

  • Alpha target share25% target share
  • Red-zone role2.4 RZ targets/g
  • Spike upside23.1 ceiling

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

CollinsStart
AdamsBench
Projection18.917.7
Floor13.19.9
Ceiling23.223.1
Target share24%25%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A+D+
Implied team total25.823.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Collins 13%, Adams 7%.

Collins (Practice: Limited): “Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Adams is listed: Practice: DNP.

Latest game on the card: Collins 21.2, Adams 20.7 (PPR points).

Why Nico Collins

Start Nico Collins — projects 18.9, a favorable matchup vs DAL.

Nico Collins projects 18.9 points on a 13.1–23.2 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DAL. Usage: targets / game at 8.0. Net: start Nico Collins this week.

Working for Collins: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR), High floor (13.1 floor).

Where Collins leads the head-to-head: Projection (18.9 vs 17.7); Floor (13.1 vs 9.9); Ceiling (23.2 vs 23.1); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs D+); Implied team total (25.8 vs 23.0); Boom rate (13% vs 7%); Bust rate (13% vs 21%); Snap share (77% vs 71%).

Why Davante Adams

Sit Davante Adams — projects 17.7, a tough matchup vs PHI, with a rising role.

Davante Adams projects 17.7 points on a 9.9–23.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against PHI. Usage: targets / game at 8.1. Net: bench Davante Adams this week.

Working for Adams: Alpha target share (25% target share), Red-zone role (2.4 RZ targets/g), Spike upside (23.1 ceiling).

Working against Adams: Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).

Where Adams leads the head-to-head: Target share (25% vs 24%); Last 3 avg (21.9 vs 13.3); Last 5 avg (16.8 vs 15.9); vs season (-1.1 vs -1.2); Consistency (59% vs 58%); Targets / game (8.1 vs 8.0); Red zone targets (34 vs 19).

Recent form

Nico Collins's last 5 games: PPR points 16.1, 23.5, 9.9, 8.7, 21.2 (oldest to newest).

Davante Adams's last 5 games: PPR points 6.9, 11.1, 5.6, 39.5, 20.7 (oldest to newest).

Collins has already beaten Adams's 17.7 projection in 2 of his 5; Adams has beaten Collins's 18.9 in 2 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Nico Collins (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.

Davante Adams (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -3.5.

What flips it

Collins's edge is 1.2 points (18.9 to 17.7). Adams's ceiling (23.1) clears Collins's projection, so a big game from Adams flips it. Collins's floor (13.1) sits under Adams's projection, so a quiet game from Collins flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Davante Adams comparisons

More Nico Collins comparisons

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